***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.3 6.5 61.1 47.8 40.7 1.2 6.2 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.7 5.9 62.8 55.7 44.8 1.0 6.7 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.3 6.3 6.3 57.4 48.2 38.3 2.9 7.0 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.0 4.7 6.8 49.5 37.2 36.1 3.9 9.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 4.2 4.9 7.6 53.6 34.8 33.9 4.7 9.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.7 6.0 6.7 50.6 39.5 34.3 3.6 7.2 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.4 6.0 64.3 56.1 44.7 1.5 5.8 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 6.2 7.0 7.6 53.8 36.4 33.8 6.4 11.0 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.6 3.7 7.6 56.9 39.7 36.1 2.2 6.0 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.7 6.5 8.2 57.4 39.1 35.6 4.0 9.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.6 5.0 7.5 57.0 39.7 36.7 3.4 8.4 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.0 2.3 6.8 53.3 36.4 34.6 2.0 3.3 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.7 4.5 7.3 54.3 37.1 34.6 3.9 5.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.8 5.9 6.9 52.4 40.8 36.6 4.1 9.5 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 1.3 0.9 4.4 31.5 35.8 30.2 0.6 3.6 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.9 3.4 7.1 53.7 36.8 35.0 2.2 6.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.8 6.2 5.6 62.6 56.2 44.8 0.9 5.7 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.9 5.6 8.1 54.1 38.8 33.6 4.1 6.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.6 9.2 6.0 60.6 51.6 43.0 1.5 9.1 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 2.1 2.9 8.2 46.2 34.7 29.4 2.8 5.4 10.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.2 5.1 7.0 57.5 44.9 38.1 3.9 6.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.2 6.7 5.6 59.5 53.6 41.7 0.4 6.5 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.6 6.2 56.1 45.4 39.4 1.2 6.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.9 7.1 7.1 54.0 40.6 36.2 5.6 12.3 18.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.9 4.9 7.6 55.5 40.3 34.9 2.5 10.2 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.6 4.0 6.0 43.0 31.9 28.9 4.2 7.3 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.5 7.2 7.4 61.9 46.3 38.8 2.2 9.6 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.3 1.5 5.9 43.6 37.9 34.5 0.9 3.4 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 6.1 7.2 8.1 51.1 36.7 31.9 6.8 12.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.4 6.0 62.2 53.6 43.1 1.3 5.3 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------