***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 7.7 9.9 6.9 2.7 84.8 80.2 3.3 5.0 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 7.7 10.2 7.2 3.0 90.6 83.1 2.8 4.7 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 8.0 10.5 7.3 2.9 87.1 81.5 3.8 5.4 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 1.6 2.9 4.9 3.0 83.5 80.6 -1.4 -0.4 0.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 6.9 9.2 5.4 2.7 81.7 78.2 4.0 4.9 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 6.0 6.4 3.7 2.0 74.6 72.2 3.4 4.9 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 7.3 9.5 6.9 2.8 88.1 82.1 2.2 4.3 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 -0.7 0.6 4.8 2.6 85.0 78.9 -2.5 -2.1 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 7.8 9.8 6.3 2.7 81.7 78.8 4.3 5.5 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 7.4 10.2 5.5 2.7 84.0 78.9 4.0 5.6 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 7.1 9.1 5.3 2.5 81.2 77.5 4.1 5.3 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 7.0 9.8 5.1 2.5 82.6 77.6 4.1 5.5 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 7.1 7.9 4.5 2.1 77.0 73.5 4.5 5.2 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 8.9 11.1 7.1 3.2 89.3 83.5 4.5 6.3 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 7.5 8.4 5.4 3.0 82.9 80.8 3.8 6.1 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 7.5 8.7 4.8 2.3 79.1 75.6 4.8 5.5 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 7.7 9.2 7.0 2.9 90.1 83.7 2.4 4.6 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 6.7 9.4 5.4 2.7 86.0 79.2 3.2 4.8 6.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 7.6 10.9 7.5 3.1 90.4 83.4 3.0 4.8 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 3.5 5.4 3.4 2.4 84.1 77.8 1.1 1.7 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 7.8 9.9 6.8 2.8 82.8 79.5 4.2 5.4 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 7 93 100 8.4 10.4 7.3 3.1 90.1 84.6 3.0 5.5 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 7.8 10.5 7.6 3.2 89.3 83.5 3.5 5.5 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 8.3 10.9 6.7 3.0 87.5 81.3 4.2 6.2 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 7.0 8.3 5.5 2.7 83.7 80.4 3.1 4.4 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 6.9 7.9 4.3 2.1 79.8 75.8 4.3 5.7 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 7.1 9.2 6.2 2.6 84.1 79.8 3.8 4.7 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 8.4 9.2 5.2 2.9 82.0 79.3 4.6 6.4 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 3.3 5.7 4.6 2.6 85.3 79.1 0.9 1.8 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 7.0 10.1 7.2 2.9 89.7 82.4 2.9 4.6 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------