***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 9.6 11.5 7.9 4.4 89.3 83.6 1.4 3.9 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 10.5 11.7 8.1 4.7 89.0 84.8 1.9 4.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 11.4 13.0 8.4 4.7 91.3 84.1 3.0 5.7 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 3.2 5.7 6.1 4.6 92.0 85.3 -2.5 -0.4 2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 9.9 11.8 6.6 4.5 92.0 83.6 2.6 5.1 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 7.7 10.1 4.5 3.2 85.4 76.1 1.8 4.6 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 9.9 11.2 7.8 4.5 86.9 83.8 1.7 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 1.2 3.9 5.8 4.1 89.9 82.3 -3.0 -1.3 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 11.5 13.1 7.5 4.6 91.6 83.8 3.2 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 11.0 12.2 6.7 4.4 90.9 83.1 3.7 6.4 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 10.5 12.3 6.3 4.2 90.6 82.2 2.8 5.4 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 10.2 11.5 6.0 3.9 88.3 81.2 3.7 5.9 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 9.2 11.1 5.1 3.4 84.5 78.1 3.0 5.3 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 12.3 14.1 8.1 4.9 91.9 85.0 4.4 6.8 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 8.7 11.4 6.4 4.7 91.6 85.6 4.2 6.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 9.7 12.1 5.6 3.8 88.4 80.1 3.5 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 9.3 10.7 8.0 4.6 88.2 84.9 2.4 5.0 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 8.0 10.7 6.6 4.4 90.4 83.0 3.6 5.2 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 10.9 12.3 8.5 4.8 90.6 85.1 2.5 5.0 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 5.1 7.1 4.5 3.9 87.7 81.2 0.4 1.9 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 10.7 12.5 8.0 4.7 91.3 84.1 3.1 5.9 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 10.3 12.8 8.3 4.8 90.4 85.8 2.8 5.8 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 10.5 12.5 8.7 4.9 91.8 85.2 3.0 5.3 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 11.8 14.0 7.8 4.7 91.5 84.0 3.9 6.6 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 8.8 10.6 6.6 4.6 92.1 85.7 2.0 4.3 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 8.1 11.6 4.9 3.4 87.6 79.1 3.3 4.4 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 9.7 12.0 7.2 4.4 89.8 84.3 2.2 4.6 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 9.8 12.4 6.3 4.6 91.1 84.1 5.5 7.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 6.5 8.2 5.8 4.2 89.0 82.4 0.7 2.4 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 9.9 11.3 8.1 4.6 89.0 84.3 1.8 4.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------