***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 4.7 5.7 4.2 1.3 67.4 64.5 1.0 1.7 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 5.7 6.6 5.0 2.1 75.5 70.6 0.9 2.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 6.4 7.0 5.1 2.0 76.3 69.5 1.5 4.5 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 1.0 1.1 2.0 1.9 74.2 68.8 -2.5 -1.1 0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 6.3 6.0 2.8 1.2 65.5 64.0 2.3 4.5 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 4.5 4.0 1.0 0.3 54.9 53.0 2.0 4.0 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 5.3 5.9 4.4 1.6 72.5 67.6 0.2 2.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 0.0 0.2 3.3 2.2 72.4 70.9 -3.2 -2.1 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 6.9 6.2 4.1 1.6 67.2 66.8 2.0 5.2 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 6.9 6.4 3.8 2.1 69.8 69.5 1.7 4.4 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 6.4 6.5 3.1 1.4 66.4 64.8 2.1 4.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 6.9 6.5 3.4 1.8 67.6 67.6 1.7 4.4 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 5.1 5.8 2.8 0.8 59.2 58.3 1.9 4.6 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 8.0 9.3 5.9 3.3 81.6 77.5 1.7 4.6 6.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 5.8 5.4 3.3 1.9 70.1 66.9 2.3 3.8 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 6.9 6.3 2.4 0.9 60.5 60.4 2.7 4.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 5.3 6.1 4.8 2.1 76.7 72.2 0.5 1.9 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 5.5 4.8 3.8 2.3 71.7 70.5 1.9 3.2 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 5.9 7.1 5.3 2.3 77.8 72.3 0.4 2.3 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 4.0 3.4 2.2 2.1 72.2 69.0 0.2 1.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 6.4 6.6 4.5 1.6 70.0 66.6 2.8 4.6 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 6.3 7.4 5.4 2.5 79.7 75.1 1.3 2.8 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 6.5 7.9 5.5 2.6 80.1 74.3 0.7 2.7 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 7.3 7.8 5.2 2.6 77.3 73.0 2.2 4.9 6.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 5.2 5.3 3.2 1.3 66.5 64.8 1.7 2.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 6.0 5.5 2.4 1.2 61.0 62.1 2.8 4.5 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 5.2 6.0 3.6 1.1 63.5 62.6 1.4 2.6 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 6.9 5.4 2.5 1.6 68.9 65.7 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 3.2 2.6 3.3 2.4 72.9 70.9 -0.5 1.0 2.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 5.0 6.2 4.8 1.9 74.4 68.8 0.7 1.9 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------