***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 0.0 1.0 -0.3 2.4 85.4 78.7 -3.3 -1.8 -1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 -0.5 1.1 -0.1 2.7 91.0 83.9 -4.3 -3.3 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 0.6 2.9 -0.5 2.4 85.6 79.6 -2.0 -1.0 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 -5.0 -4.6 -3.5 2.5 77.2 76.2 -7.7 -6.5 -5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 -1.7 -1.9 -3.4 2.2 72.4 73.3 -3.9 -3.4 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 -3.0 -2.9 -6.2 1.3 63.9 64.8 -5.2 -4.2 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 -0.5 0.7 -0.2 2.6 89.5 83.0 -3.9 -2.5 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 -6.8 -6.4 -4.4 2.6 79.0 76.0 -9.8 -8.3 -8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 -1.0 -1.0 -2.5 2.3 73.5 74.7 -3.2 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 -1.0 -0.6 -3.7 2.5 77.3 75.8 -3.6 -2.4 -1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 -1.4 -1.6 -4.0 2.1 71.8 70.9 -4.0 -2.9 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 -2.6 -2.8 -3.9 2.4 73.7 73.3 -4.8 -4.0 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 45 55 100 -2.0 -2.3 -4.9 1.6 64.8 66.5 -4.0 -3.1 -2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 0.0 1.3 -1.6 3.3 89.8 84.6 -3.2 -2.0 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 -0.9 -0.7 -2.9 2.3 75.8 75.3 -3.3 -2.1 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 -1.4 -1.3 -4.7 1.7 66.0 67.4 -3.1 -2.5 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 -0.6 0.9 0.1 2.8 90.2 85.3 -4.2 -2.9 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 -3.0 -2.2 -4.0 2.8 80.4 77.8 -5.8 -4.6 -3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 -0.9 1.2 -0.2 2.7 90.8 83.9 -4.3 -2.9 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 -6.0 -4.8 -5.8 2.5 83.7 76.8 -9.8 -8.0 -6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 -1.2 -0.8 -1.2 2.4 78.2 77.3 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 -0.6 0.7 0.1 2.9 91.9 86.6 -4.3 -3.3 -1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 -0.9 0.5 -0.5 2.7 90.5 83.8 -4.3 -2.9 -1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 -1.2 -0.3 -2.2 2.8 84.0 80.0 -4.1 -2.6 -1.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 -1.2 -0.5 -2.0 2.5 80.7 78.4 -3.6 -3.3 -1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 -1.8 -1.9 -4.3 2.0 71.9 71.0 -3.9 -2.9 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 -0.7 0.9 -1.1 2.5 83.8 78.7 -3.8 -2.6 -1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 -2.1 -1.9 -3.6 2.1 73.0 72.7 -4.5 -3.5 -2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 -4.6 -4.2 -4.9 2.5 79.3 75.3 -6.4 -5.6 -4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 -0.6 1.4 -0.2 2.5 89.5 82.3 -3.6 -2.7 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------