***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 1.0 1.9 0.8 3.4 81.8 76.6 -2.8 -1.2 1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 0.0 2.2 0.8 3.5 87.9 78.9 -3.9 -1.6 -0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 2.4 3.5 0.4 3.3 82.9 77.7 -1.9 -0.3 2.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 -2.6 -1.0 -2.5 3.4 81.6 78.6 -8.3 -7.8 -2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 -0.9 -0.2 -2.4 3.3 78.5 75.8 -3.5 -2.8 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 -1.8 -1.3 -5.3 2.4 70.7 69.0 -5.1 -3.2 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 -0.1 1.9 0.8 3.6 86.6 78.3 -3.2 -2.0 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -5.7 -4.9 -3.7 3.3 74.9 74.1 -9.5 -7.6 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 0.4 1.3 -1.5 3.3 76.9 75.0 -3.5 -1.9 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 -0.5 0.0 -2.8 3.3 76.9 74.6 -2.9 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 -0.6 -0.6 -3.0 3.1 72.8 73.9 -3.2 -2.3 -1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 -1.7 -1.4 -3.1 3.1 71.2 74.1 -4.3 -3.4 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 -1.1 -1.1 -4.0 2.7 70.0 71.7 -4.1 -2.7 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 0.6 2.1 -1.0 3.6 86.3 77.6 -2.3 -0.9 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 0.2 1.0 -2.0 3.3 81.0 80.1 -3.0 -1.2 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 0.2 -0.3 -3.7 2.9 72.7 73.5 -3.0 -1.3 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 -0.2 1.9 1.0 3.7 88.6 78.2 -3.4 -1.4 -0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 -2.3 -1.8 -3.1 3.5 77.3 75.1 -4.7 -3.6 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 0.2 1.9 0.7 3.4 86.9 79.1 -3.3 -2.1 0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 -5.2 -4.8 -5.0 3.2 72.4 72.0 -8.7 -7.2 -5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 -0.1 0.7 -0.3 3.3 80.1 76.1 -3.4 -2.0 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 -0.3 1.1 0.9 3.6 88.2 78.8 -3.1 -2.2 -0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 -0.1 1.3 0.3 3.4 86.3 79.2 -3.3 -2.3 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 -0.5 0.7 -1.4 3.4 82.3 76.7 -3.5 -2.1 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 -0.4 0.5 -1.3 3.5 81.8 78.4 -3.0 -2.3 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 -0.8 -0.7 -3.8 2.7 69.3 71.6 -3.5 -2.6 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 0.9 2.1 -0.2 3.6 81.0 77.3 -3.7 -1.4 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 -0.9 -0.4 -2.5 3.2 79.7 78.0 -4.7 -2.3 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 -2.1 -1.4 -3.8 3.4 75.2 73.8 -6.5 -4.6 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 0.7 2.2 0.8 3.5 86.1 78.5 -3.0 -1.6 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------