***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 0.7 1.6 0.0 3.2 78.3 76.5 -4.4 -1.8 0.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 -0.1 1.1 0.3 3.6 84.2 80.1 -4.9 -2.5 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 2.3 3.4 -0.3 3.1 78.7 76.5 -2.5 -0.4 2.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 -4.2 -3.2 -3.7 2.8 73.5 71.7 -8.8 -6.8 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 -1.4 -1.4 -3.5 2.9 70.7 71.4 -4.8 -3.3 -1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 -3.8 -4.3 -6.6 1.6 57.2 60.6 -5.5 -4.3 -2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 0.3 1.2 0.4 3.7 84.6 80.1 -4.7 -1.9 -0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 -5.8 -5.2 -4.1 3.6 77.0 75.0 -10.7 -7.7 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 0.5 0.8 -2.1 3.4 75.1 75.7 -4.3 -2.1 -0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 -0.8 -0.3 -3.5 3.4 75.5 74.5 -4.5 -2.5 -1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 -1.5 -1.6 -4.2 2.7 67.7 69.1 -4.7 -3.0 -1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 -2.5 -1.8 -3.7 3.3 73.0 72.8 -5.5 -4.5 -2.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 -2.9 -2.7 -4.8 2.5 60.3 65.8 -5.0 -3.3 -2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 0.4 1.2 -1.4 4.1 84.8 81.9 -3.2 -1.1 0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 0.0 -0.4 -2.6 3.1 73.4 74.9 -3.3 -2.1 -1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 -1.2 -1.3 -5.0 2.3 63.8 66.1 -3.6 -2.8 -1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 0.1 1.5 0.8 4.0 89.7 82.9 -5.2 -1.8 -0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 -3.2 -2.6 -3.8 3.7 78.1 75.6 -6.2 -4.7 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 0.1 1.1 0.1 3.5 83.6 79.5 -4.3 -1.8 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 -6.1 -5.2 -5.3 3.7 75.6 74.2 -10.6 -8.9 -7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 -0.3 0.2 -0.9 3.3 76.9 76.3 -3.7 -2.3 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 0.1 1.3 0.7 4.1 89.3 83.4 -5.1 -1.4 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 -0.5 0.4 -0.3 3.5 83.9 79.6 -4.2 -2.0 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 -0.9 -0.3 -2.0 3.6 81.1 78.0 -4.2 -2.1 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 -0.5 0.4 -2.0 3.3 79.4 76.9 -4.5 -2.8 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 -2.1 -2.0 -4.0 3.0 70.5 71.0 -4.9 -3.6 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 0.4 1.4 -0.9 3.4 80.3 77.3 -4.5 -2.7 -0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 -1.9 -1.6 -3.7 2.6 70.1 70.0 -5.4 -4.1 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 -2.2 -1.0 -4.6 3.5 76.2 73.8 -7.6 -5.4 -3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 0.8 1.7 0.1 3.4 81.4 78.4 -4.5 -1.7 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------