***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 -2.3 -2.0 -2.1 1.0 58.3 58.4 -5.5 -3.1 -1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 -0.4 -1.1 -1.7 1.7 72.6 67.8 -6.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 -1.0 -0.1 -2.0 1.3 60.8 61.8 -3.4 -1.6 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -6.2 -6.3 -5.2 1.2 57.8 59.2 -8.8 -6.7 -5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 -2.6 -3.2 -5.2 0.4 48.7 52.1 -4.1 -3.2 -0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 -4.2 -5.3 -7.9 -0.5 41.3 43.6 -6.3 -4.8 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 -0.3 -1.3 -2.0 1.3 70.0 65.8 -5.1 -3.2 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 -7.8 -8.0 -5.7 1.4 57.0 58.6 -10.8 -8.2 -7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 -1.9 -2.6 -4.6 0.5 46.8 51.0 -4.2 -2.3 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 -2.1 -1.9 -5.2 1.2 54.6 56.7 -4.5 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 -2.5 -2.9 -5.5 0.3 48.5 50.4 -4.3 -2.9 -0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 -3.0 -3.3 -5.3 1.0 51.1 54.2 -5.3 -3.3 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 -2.7 -3.8 -6.8 -0.7 38.9 42.1 -4.4 -3.2 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 0.0 0.1 -2.1 3.3 74.9 75.3 -4.1 -1.6 -1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 -2.1 -2.7 -4.7 0.4 48.8 51.9 -3.9 -2.7 -0.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 -2.2 -3.1 -6.7 -0.5 41.4 43.5 -4.2 -2.6 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 -0.5 0.0 -1.6 1.8 75.4 71.0 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 -3.6 -3.4 -5.1 1.9 58.9 61.7 -5.5 -3.9 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 -0.8 -0.5 -1.6 1.8 72.2 68.2 -5.2 -3.0 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 -7.5 -6.9 -7.0 1.5 62.4 60.5 -9.7 -8.1 -6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 -2.0 -1.7 -2.7 1.0 54.6 57.6 -4.4 -2.5 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 -0.6 0.2 -1.4 2.2 78.0 74.1 -5.3 -3.6 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 -0.8 -1.1 -1.8 2.0 70.3 68.5 -4.7 -2.3 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 -1.3 -1.5 -3.2 2.2 65.0 65.4 -4.8 -2.3 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 -1.0 -2.3 -3.2 1.0 55.9 59.0 -4.4 -2.7 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 -3.1 -3.5 -5.7 0.6 50.3 52.9 -4.9 -3.6 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 -2.4 -2.4 -2.7 1.0 57.4 58.7 -5.3 -3.2 -1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 -3.5 -4.3 -5.6 0.3 48.8 51.7 -5.3 -4.2 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 -5.4 -4.7 -6.7 1.2 57.2 57.3 -8.6 -5.7 -4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 -0.6 -1.0 -1.8 1.4 68.2 64.6 -5.3 -3.0 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------