***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 15.7 16.0 27.9 66.4 25.9 30.1 21.5 25.7 33.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 16.1 15.3 24.9 68.7 28.7 32.2 17.6 27.3 37.1 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 24.8 25.1 28.7 68.1 27.7 30.8 26.3 40.3 45.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 32.4 32.8 32.0 63.8 25.7 29.1 33.8 39.6 51.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 27.0 29.7 33.9 68.0 26.5 30.0 33.5 43.9 53.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 19.4 20.1 34.1 70.3 24.8 30.8 26.8 32.0 46.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 14.3 16.4 24.0 67.5 28.1 31.7 20.1 21.6 34.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 44.7 39.2 36.5 68.3 23.4 28.8 48.2 67.1 79.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 21.1 21.6 34.7 68.8 25.9 30.1 22.8 29.9 39.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 27.1 24.8 37.6 69.6 24.0 29.7 31.2 39.3 46.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 20.9 20.4 33.9 67.9 25.8 29.8 24.9 30.0 42.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 21.3 12.5 32.7 67.3 23.8 29.0 21.7 41.3 46.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 23.4 24.2 35.6 68.3 23.9 29.2 27.4 40.7 61.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 32.8 27.9 35.9 66.6 22.5 27.6 40.9 53.1 62.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 17.2 19.0 31.5 67.5 33.9 34.2 18.0 27.0 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 21.3 16.6 33.5 67.6 25.4 30.1 22.4 32.5 43.4 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 16.9 21.6 23.8 67.8 30.6 32.1 22.1 27.5 35.9 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 24.9 23.4 39.7 70.4 23.6 29.6 27.0 39.0 60.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 20.4 19.3 26.0 68.8 28.3 31.9 22.8 30.3 39.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 25.9 20.1 48.0 71.0 25.1 29.5 24.6 43.1 56.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 26.1 22.6 31.6 67.5 25.3 29.6 23.8 38.3 42.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 20.5 20.9 26.2 70.6 32.3 33.9 21.1 31.8 39.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 20.0 18.9 28.0 67.0 25.2 30.2 22.4 32.8 35.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 30.7 27.4 35.1 68.6 23.6 29.3 34.2 46.1 56.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 24.0 22.9 31.6 64.4 23.0 28.0 29.4 38.7 47.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 21.6 19.7 34.7 71.7 26.6 32.1 24.3 37.8 47.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 21.3 20.2 28.9 65.0 24.3 28.7 21.3 32.6 41.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 17.1 15.8 31.3 65.3 28.7 31.2 20.8 26.5 36.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 43.8 38.3 42.4 70.4 22.6 28.9 49.8 67.7 80.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 14.5 16.0 25.7 68.4 28.8 31.9 19.6 25.1 39.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------