***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.1 6.4 9.9 95.8 52.2 49.9 2.0 5.7 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.2 3.4 8.5 91.7 55.2 48.8 0.9 2.8 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.3 5.4 10.6 100.8 56.5 51.6 2.2 4.1 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.6 11.0 89.1 55.8 48.8 6.0 10.5 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.0 12.0 12.1 95.4 55.8 50.2 6.2 8.0 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.9 7.5 12.5 94.6 54.5 47.4 4.2 6.3 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.5 3.4 8.2 88.7 54.4 48.2 1.2 2.7 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 13.9 19.0 12.9 94.2 53.5 49.3 12.7 18.6 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.5 13.0 98.3 57.5 51.2 3.8 7.3 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.9 12.2 13.8 98.9 56.2 50.9 6.5 11.4 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.0 9.8 12.2 97.7 55.9 50.1 3.9 6.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.1 10.3 11.5 92.1 53.6 48.2 5.4 8.8 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.5 10.5 12.0 89.2 52.2 46.5 4.4 9.8 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.3 10.8 13.2 96.0 55.7 50.9 4.4 9.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.9 12.2 11.0 95.7 62.8 50.5 1.8 6.4 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.0 8.0 11.8 93.1 54.0 47.7 4.6 7.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.2 3.4 7.5 81.2 53.1 46.1 1.1 3.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 11.2 14.5 99.1 54.6 51.4 4.0 8.9 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.3 9.2 95.3 55.5 49.9 1.6 2.9 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.6 9.9 16.3 91.2 51.6 48.8 4.6 7.6 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.5 10.7 11.7 99.4 57.4 51.6 1.9 6.1 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.8 4.9 8.4 84.6 53.7 47.3 1.7 4.3 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.6 4.6 10.2 95.7 53.8 50.3 2.3 4.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.2 7.9 13.0 100.3 56.0 52.2 3.4 7.1 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.8 6.9 11.0 92.0 52.2 49.3 2.0 6.9 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.3 11.9 93.2 55.1 49.1 2.7 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.2 6.0 10.1 92.8 51.7 48.9 2.0 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.2 8.7 11.1 91.8 58.5 48.7 1.6 5.3 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.4 17.1 15.1 96.1 52.7 50.4 10.2 16.3 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.3 9.0 94.8 55.3 49.7 1.5 3.1 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------