***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.6 4.4 8.5 80.5 54.1 43.1 1.6 3.7 8.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.3 3.2 7.3 81.3 56.4 43.4 1.5 2.8 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.2 8.7 85.3 54.9 44.8 2.6 6.4 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.1 10.2 9.0 82.4 54.3 42.9 3.9 8.6 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.9 10.1 9.1 80.4 51.3 42.0 3.1 9.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.4 6.2 8.7 77.6 49.1 41.7 3.5 6.7 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.8 4.2 7.0 78.2 53.5 42.1 2.2 4.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.3 16.5 10.6 91.1 55.0 45.1 7.2 14.8 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.0 10.0 82.1 49.9 42.4 2.7 6.1 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.5 6.9 10.8 87.9 52.3 44.3 3.8 6.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.6 6.6 9.1 82.7 51.3 42.7 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.9 9.0 85.3 53.7 43.5 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.5 9.1 77.7 48.4 41.2 3.6 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.5 13.2 10.4 81.7 53.6 43.4 6.5 11.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.2 8.7 9.5 93.8 61.2 48.6 0.6 4.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.4 6.6 8.8 78.8 49.1 41.6 2.6 6.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.2 7.1 79.2 54.4 43.1 2.3 6.2 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.5 7.5 11.9 90.9 53.1 45.0 3.0 6.9 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.3 7.2 7.5 82.4 55.8 44.1 2.9 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 3.7 8.3 15.1 97.4 56.6 46.1 4.3 7.7 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.2 7.5 9.3 82.0 52.2 43.3 3.4 6.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.9 6.7 7.7 85.4 55.4 45.5 2.6 5.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.4 6.0 8.2 82.5 53.5 44.2 1.7 5.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.7 13.2 10.3 85.7 53.3 44.1 4.2 8.9 15.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.7 5.8 9.2 76.7 51.3 41.6 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.2 9.3 88.6 55.1 45.8 1.6 4.3 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.3 6.9 8.6 76.5 50.9 41.8 4.2 6.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.3 5.7 8.8 85.0 55.1 44.5 0.5 5.3 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.3 14.0 12.6 90.9 52.3 44.5 7.4 13.3 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.1 6.1 7.7 83.7 57.4 44.3 2.2 4.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------