***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 3.1 1.8 7.7 74.8 49.0 41.2 0.1 1.9 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 3.3 3.2 7.7 92.5 58.2 46.8 0.8 2.6 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 4.4 2.2 7.2 72.9 49.5 41.4 1.2 2.3 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.9 7.2 8.1 73.3 48.5 40.6 5.8 7.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.0 6.9 8.3 72.0 45.5 39.2 5.4 7.9 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.8 5.4 7.7 69.0 43.5 38.0 2.5 6.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.7 7.5 92.4 58.5 46.9 1.5 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.1 10.8 8.1 66.7 43.0 37.1 7.6 12.2 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.7 8.1 70.1 45.8 38.5 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.7 5.2 8.2 68.8 43.8 38.1 2.7 6.1 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.6 5.1 7.6 65.1 41.5 36.2 3.6 6.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 1.8 3.1 7.3 64.2 43.2 36.0 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.2 4.2 7.9 67.3 39.6 36.8 3.5 7.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 2.3 4.9 9.2 74.1 46.9 40.6 3.2 5.0 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.0 1.8 7.7 80.6 53.8 46.5 0.3 1.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.0 6.1 7.8 67.5 41.1 37.6 4.5 6.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.3 4.3 7.8 98.8 60.1 47.8 0.8 2.5 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 2.5 4.4 9.0 71.1 44.4 38.6 2.9 5.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.4 7.7 87.6 55.4 44.9 0.7 2.4 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.3 11.5 73.9 45.5 39.8 2.5 4.8 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.2 4.2 7.8 71.3 46.7 39.1 3.3 4.4 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.6 3.9 8.6 102.2 60.0 48.7 0.5 3.1 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.3 1.9 7.5 76.3 48.4 41.1 0.8 2.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.4 8.4 71.4 46.5 39.5 3.5 6.0 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.4 6.5 8.7 74.3 47.3 40.5 2.3 7.1 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.1 5.5 7.7 69.1 47.0 38.0 3.3 6.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.4 8.2 75.8 50.0 41.5 0.6 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 3.8 1.7 7.5 72.4 48.8 42.0 0.9 2.0 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.1 8.9 10.3 74.2 46.1 39.4 4.1 10.4 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.4 7.5 85.6 56.2 45.3 1.1 2.9 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------