***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 1.7 0.7 1.8 16.6 17.8 17.0 4.2 9.3 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 1.1 0.7 1.4 14.4 20.5 15.9 2.3 6.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 1.8 0.6 2.2 19.0 19.4 18.4 3.9 7.4 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 1.7 0.6 3.9 24.6 24.8 21.4 2.6 8.5 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 2.5 1.3 4.3 30.3 23.6 23.1 4.2 8.1 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 2.3 2.2 5.2 40.1 27.1 26.5 4.4 7.8 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 1.2 0.6 1.4 14.6 20.4 15.3 1.3 5.6 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 3.1 2.2 4.9 30.8 23.8 21.7 5.0 11.3 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 1.8 0.6 3.6 26.7 20.6 21.2 1.8 6.3 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 2.4 1.4 4.8 29.9 22.2 21.2 2.5 6.8 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 1.6 1.7 5.0 34.0 27.1 24.1 2.1 5.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 1.1 1.6 4.9 34.5 27.5 24.5 2.0 3.9 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 2.4 4.0 6.5 43.2 30.2 27.6 4.5 9.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 2.9 0.8 3.2 20.9 17.4 17.8 2.5 11.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 90 10 0 100 0.3 0.2 3.2 21.0 27.7 22.0 1.0 3.4 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 1.6 2.2 5.1 35.7 28.4 25.4 3.5 6.1 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 1.0 0.4 1.3 14.9 21.7 16.0 0.7 5.7 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 1.7 0.7 4.3 26.9 18.0 19.1 2.6 6.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 1.6 0.5 1.6 15.7 21.4 17.2 2.1 9.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 1.5 0.7 5.0 27.3 19.9 19.0 3.3 5.9 16.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 1.3 0.5 2.8 21.6 19.7 19.5 3.1 5.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 1.3 0.3 1.6 16.0 24.4 18.3 0.9 7.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 1.4 0.5 2.0 17.9 22.5 18.3 1.0 7.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 1.9 0.6 3.4 23.5 17.3 18.6 2.8 7.7 17.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 1.9 1.1 2.7 20.3 18.9 18.3 4.1 9.4 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.6 3.0 5.8 41.6 31.0 28.2 3.2 7.8 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 1.3 0.7 2.0 17.6 18.8 16.9 3.2 5.9 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 0.6 0.3 3.9 26.0 27.4 23.0 1.0 4.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 3.6 2.2 4.3 25.9 18.4 18.5 3.7 12.4 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 1.3 0.5 1.5 14.5 20.1 16.1 2.2 7.0 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------