***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 5.3 5.4 5.1 0.6 55.5 55.9 3.0 5.0 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 4.6 4.1 4.8 0.1 50.8 50.8 2.6 4.1 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 5.1 4.6 5.0 0.0 49.5 49.8 3.5 4.7 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 0.0 -0.8 1.1 -0.7 45.1 44.1 -1.5 -0.4 0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 5.1 5.0 3.0 -0.1 50.5 49.8 3.6 4.8 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 4.7 4.3 1.8 -0.2 51.2 49.5 3.4 4.3 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 4.1 4.5 5.1 0.5 56.1 55.5 2.1 3.7 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -1.6 -1.4 2.8 0.3 59.7 54.8 -2.8 -2.0 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 5.7 5.7 4.2 0.2 53.0 52.4 3.9 5.3 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 5.6 6.2 3.5 0.3 58.6 54.8 3.8 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 5.6 5.4 3.1 -0.2 51.4 49.3 3.8 5.1 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.0 2.9 -0.1 53.9 50.0 4.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 5.4 5.3 2.6 -0.2 53.4 48.9 4.1 4.8 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 6.5 5.6 4.0 -0.5 47.4 46.1 4.1 6.1 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.2 4.5 1.8 -1.1 38.5 39.9 3.2 5.8 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 5.7 5.1 2.3 -0.4 48.4 46.9 4.4 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 4.5 4.1 4.6 0.0 50.2 49.5 2.3 4.1 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.7 3.6 0.5 60.1 56.6 3.2 4.3 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 4.7 3.3 4.5 -0.3 44.0 45.2 2.6 4.2 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.2 3.0 2.3 0.8 65.2 61.7 0.8 1.7 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 5.4 5.6 4.7 0.1 52.2 51.9 3.7 5.0 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 5.4 3.6 4.0 -0.8 39.8 40.4 2.6 4.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 5.0 3.7 4.2 -0.8 39.5 40.4 3.2 4.5 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.1 4.3 0.0 52.4 50.3 4.2 6.1 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 4.0 5.3 3.6 0.4 55.4 55.0 2.7 3.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 5.3 5.7 2.2 0.0 54.7 51.3 4.3 4.9 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 4.7 5.5 4.8 0.8 58.7 58.8 3.3 4.4 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.7 5.5 1.3 -1.0 40.0 40.8 3.9 6.4 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.0 2.9 3.2 0.6 62.1 58.3 0.7 1.7 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 4.3 4.2 4.9 0.3 52.2 52.5 2.6 4.0 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------