***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 6.7 7.0 6.9 1.3 61.5 58.7 2.9 6.3 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.2 6.8 6.9 1.2 59.5 58.3 2.4 4.3 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.7 7.8 7.2 1.1 60.2 57.4 3.1 4.8 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -0.8 -0.8 3.2 0.1 51.5 50.8 -2.6 -1.7 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.9 4.9 0.8 55.6 55.0 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.7 3.6 0.7 56.0 54.7 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 4.6 6.5 6.9 1.2 60.4 58.6 1.9 3.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -2.0 -2.3 4.4 0.9 56.0 57.0 -4.5 -2.6 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.6 6.8 5.9 1.0 57.3 56.6 3.3 5.9 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.9 6.2 5.1 1.1 57.0 57.2 3.6 5.1 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.1 5.0 0.8 55.4 56.0 3.4 5.8 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.9 4.8 0.8 55.1 56.4 3.1 5.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.3 4.1 0.8 56.0 56.2 3.1 6.2 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.6 7.1 5.9 0.7 56.2 54.5 2.8 5.7 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.4 4.4 3.9 0.2 50.2 51.2 3.7 4.4 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.1 4.3 0.6 54.6 54.2 3.4 6.6 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 4.7 6.3 6.9 1.1 60.0 58.0 2.0 3.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 5.2 6.0 5.1 1.1 56.5 57.0 3.3 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 5.0 7.3 7.0 1.2 59.1 57.8 2.1 4.0 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.9 3.0 3.2 1.2 57.8 58.6 0.6 2.2 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 6.0 7.0 6.5 1.0 58.6 56.7 3.3 5.2 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.5 6.9 1.0 57.6 56.9 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.4 7.1 7.1 1.1 58.4 56.8 2.3 4.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.6 6.1 0.9 56.8 55.9 3.3 4.7 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 4.7 5.8 5.1 1.1 59.3 57.4 2.7 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.9 4.1 0.9 58.1 57.2 3.4 5.5 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 5.7 7.0 6.3 1.3 61.5 58.9 2.2 5.0 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.2 3.3 -0.1 49.5 49.4 3.9 5.2 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.7 3.1 4.5 1.1 57.2 57.5 -0.7 2.0 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 5.1 6.3 6.9 1.2 60.5 58.5 1.8 4.3 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------