***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 8.6 8.8 6.2 0.9 58.1 56.1 4.3 8.1 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.5 6.1 0.8 55.1 55.1 3.8 6.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.5 8.0 6.4 0.6 54.2 53.2 5.1 7.7 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 2.1 1.4 2.4 -0.3 47.7 48.1 -1.1 1.4 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.1 7.5 4.2 0.3 53.2 52.5 5.9 7.3 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.3 6.6 3.0 0.2 49.8 51.4 4.7 6.7 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.1 7.5 6.2 0.9 57.5 56.1 3.4 6.4 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.0 -0.3 4.0 0.6 54.3 54.6 -1.7 -0.4 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.7 8.5 5.4 0.6 54.8 54.2 5.9 7.8 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.0 4.7 0.6 54.6 54.4 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.3 4.2 0.4 53.3 52.5 6.0 7.0 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.6 4.1 0.4 53.3 52.9 6.0 7.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.8 7.2 3.5 0.4 52.8 53.0 5.8 7.0 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.2 5.1 0.0 48.7 49.2 6.2 7.2 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.8 2.9 -0.4 45.7 47.2 4.3 7.0 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 8.1 7.4 3.6 0.1 51.2 50.9 6.5 7.3 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.1 6.7 6.1 0.7 54.1 55.1 4.2 6.3 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 7.2 7.0 4.8 0.7 54.2 54.3 5.4 6.5 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.6 6.2 0.6 52.7 53.5 4.2 7.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 4.4 4.7 3.1 1.0 56.3 57.3 2.3 4.0 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.1 7.9 5.8 0.6 54.2 53.9 5.8 7.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.6 5.9 0.4 50.1 52.5 4.7 7.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.3 6.2 0.3 50.6 51.2 4.5 7.2 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.8 5.4 0.3 51.5 51.9 6.0 7.6 10.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 7.3 7.8 4.4 0.7 57.4 55.6 4.5 6.6 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 7.2 8.2 3.7 0.7 55.2 56.0 5.8 6.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 7.5 8.5 5.7 1.0 58.6 57.2 5.4 6.8 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.6 6.6 2.4 -0.6 43.8 45.8 4.5 7.5 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 4.3 3.9 4.2 0.7 54.7 54.9 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.5 7.8 6.1 0.8 56.1 55.2 3.9 7.0 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------