***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 5.9 7.4 6.6 2.5 68.5 68.2 1.6 2.9 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 6.8 6.6 6.4 2.2 64.4 64.8 2.2 4.8 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 7.3 7.6 6.7 2.1 64.0 64.2 2.8 5.3 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -0.1 0.6 2.3 1.1 59.7 57.7 -2.6 -1.0 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 6.2 6.7 4.6 1.8 64.0 62.6 3.0 4.4 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 5.4 5.8 3.6 2.0 66.3 65.2 2.5 3.6 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 6.3 6.5 6.6 2.4 67.0 67.7 1.9 4.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 0.2 0.3 4.7 2.5 69.8 68.6 -3.3 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 7.7 8.3 6.1 2.3 66.9 66.1 3.5 5.5 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 7.7 7.8 5.6 2.7 69.8 69.0 3.6 5.4 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 5.3 6.7 4.6 1.6 61.0 60.9 3.7 4.6 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 5.6 7.5 4.4 1.7 63.4 63.3 3.7 5.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 6.0 6.4 4.4 1.8 64.0 63.4 3.6 5.3 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 6.9 8.0 6.1 1.8 61.2 61.6 4.4 6.1 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.0 2.5 0.2 50.9 51.4 3.4 4.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 5.5 7.1 3.9 1.4 61.1 60.2 3.9 4.7 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 6.5 5.6 6.0 1.9 64.2 63.5 1.9 5.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 6.4 6.4 5.9 3.0 71.4 71.2 3.0 4.5 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 5.8 6.4 6.0 1.6 58.6 59.9 2.0 5.2 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 3.7 4.2 4.5 3.1 75.4 74.0 0.9 1.8 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 7.2 7.5 6.6 2.3 66.4 66.2 3.2 5.1 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.3 5.8 5.2 0.8 53.7 54.6 2.2 5.4 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 5.8 5.6 5.5 0.9 52.8 54.4 2.7 5.1 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 8.2 8.3 6.4 2.3 65.0 65.4 4.2 5.7 8.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 5.8 6.5 5.3 2.5 69.3 68.0 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 6.9 6.3 3.7 1.8 66.8 65.2 3.5 5.0 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 6.7 7.5 6.4 2.8 71.4 71.0 2.7 4.0 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.0 2.6 0.7 54.3 54.6 4.5 5.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 4.1 4.1 5.4 3.0 72.9 72.2 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 6.6 6.5 6.5 2.3 65.4 65.7 2.1 4.7 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------