***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 0.2 0.1 0.8 -2.4 25.7 27.4 0.5 2.2 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 91 9 0 100 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -3.6 15.3 17.5 0.5 1.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -3.8 16.8 18.6 0.8 3.3 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 -4.1 -4.8 -3.5 -3.6 19.3 23.2 -1.9 -0.4 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 1.1 0.0 -1.8 -3.4 20.7 23.0 1.1 5.1 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 0.6 0.2 -2.9 -3.5 23.9 23.7 1.2 5.0 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 -0.5 0.0 0.8 -2.5 24.8 25.5 0.1 1.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 -3.9 -2.9 -1.7 -2.9 26.6 26.9 -2.2 -0.4 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 1.1 0.4 -0.6 -3.3 21.5 23.1 1.6 4.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 1.3 1.0 -1.3 -3.1 25.4 26.1 1.2 3.9 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 0.9 0.3 -1.4 -3.5 21.9 22.8 1.5 4.8 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 0.4 0.0 -1.9 -3.3 22.6 23.2 1.4 4.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 0.6 0.2 -1.7 -3.8 21.5 21.3 1.5 5.1 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 0.9 0.2 -1.1 -4.3 17.2 19.3 0.8 4.4 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 -0.8 -1.5 -2.3 -4.1 17.7 19.5 2.1 4.1 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 0.5 0.7 -2.4 -3.8 21.2 21.5 2.0 5.5 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 89 11 0 100 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -3.6 12.7 15.7 0.3 1.6 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 1.0 0.9 -1.3 -2.8 27.6 28.4 1.0 2.9 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 -0.7 -1.2 -1.2 -4.8 9.5 11.5 -0.1 1.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 2.8 -1.0 -1.6 -2.0 31.4 33.1 -0.3 2.0 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 1.2 0.4 0.0 -3.4 19.7 22.2 1.8 4.3 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 0.1 -0.8 -1.9 -5.3 4.1 6.7 0.8 1.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 99 1 0 100 -0.4 -1.7 -2.1 -5.6 6.7 8.7 0.4 2.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 1.0 0.6 -0.7 -3.7 20.5 21.6 1.6 4.2 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 0.9 0.3 -0.5 -2.6 26.1 27.6 0.6 3.2 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 0.9 0.5 -2.4 -3.5 19.4 20.9 1.8 5.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.1 0.6 0.8 -2.0 29.2 30.4 0.7 3.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 0.7 0.5 -3.0 -4.0 18.9 21.3 1.9 4.1 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -0.9 -1.8 -1.3 -2.4 30.3 30.4 -0.8 2.2 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 -0.6 -0.8 0.3 -3.2 19.7 21.2 0.2 1.8 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------