***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 -1.6 -2.0 -3.1 0.1 49.4 50.3 -3.6 -2.0 -1.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 -2.2 -4.8 -3.9 -0.9 35.2 37.8 -5.1 -2.9 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 -0.4 -2.0 -4.0 -1.0 36.4 37.8 -2.4 -1.0 0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -6.1 -7.3 -6.4 -0.4 46.4 45.8 -7.9 -6.5 -5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -2.9 -4.0 -5.9 -0.4 43.3 44.7 -4.3 -3.5 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 -4.0 -4.8 -8.1 -0.5 45.3 45.0 -5.2 -4.4 -3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 -1.9 -3.3 -3.3 -0.4 43.3 44.1 -4.5 -2.3 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -8.1 -8.4 -7.4 -0.2 48.3 47.9 -9.4 -8.4 -7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 -1.6 -3.3 -5.7 -0.6 40.3 43.0 -3.4 -2.1 -1.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 -2.1 -2.9 -6.9 -0.4 44.9 45.5 -3.8 -2.6 -1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 -2.5 -3.7 -7.1 -0.9 39.9 40.2 -4.0 -3.0 -2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 -3.7 -4.5 -7.4 -0.6 41.7 43.0 -4.9 -4.1 -3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 -2.7 -4.1 -7.9 -1.0 36.1 38.0 -4.2 -3.1 -2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 -3.3 -3.6 -6.6 -1.6 29.2 32.1 -3.3 -2.0 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -3.2 -6.1 -1.2 36.2 37.1 -3.2 -2.3 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 -2.2 -3.2 -7.7 -1.0 38.8 39.1 -3.3 -2.6 -1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 -2.3 -4.0 -3.9 -1.0 35.7 37.0 -4.4 -2.9 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -4.1 -5.1 -7.5 -0.6 42.7 43.8 -5.7 -4.6 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 -4.7 -5.1 -4.5 -1.5 28.5 31.4 -4.5 -2.8 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 -7.6 -7.4 -7.9 0.2 54.7 52.9 -9.4 -8.1 -6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 -2.0 -3.3 -4.4 -0.5 42.4 43.8 -3.8 -2.5 -1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 -5.3 -5.9 -5.0 -2.0 23.4 27.1 -4.4 -3.3 -1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 -4.9 -5.1 -5.3 -2.0 23.5 26.2 -4.3 -2.9 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 -4.2 -4.2 -6.5 -1.3 31.5 35.4 -4.1 -2.8 -1.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 -2.9 -3.1 -4.3 0.1 52.4 51.6 -4.1 -3.4 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 -2.7 -3.7 -7.6 -0.7 42.4 42.2 -4.0 -3.1 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 -2.3 -2.7 -3.3 0.3 54.3 53.4 -4.0 -2.9 -1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 -3.1 -4.5 -6.7 -0.9 40.5 40.7 -4.8 -3.5 -2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -5.2 -6.0 -8.0 -0.5 43.7 44.8 -6.6 -5.5 -4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 -1.9 -3.3 -3.6 -0.6 39.7 41.2 -4.2 -2.5 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------