***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 47.7 111.7 60.9 57.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 31.2 36.8 45.5 111.3 65.4 58.0 17.6 27.3 37.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 43.8 40.6 47.5 108.0 58.8 54.3 26.3 40.3 45.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 44.0 49.4 55.4 114.8 63.1 59.5 33.8 39.6 51.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 47.8 52.0 53.9 109.9 61.0 57.2 33.5 43.9 53.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 45.1 50.5 59.7 123.4 73.0 65.4 26.8 32.0 46.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 25.4 32.9 45.1 111.1 64.1 58.0 20.1 21.6 34.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 69.6 76.9 59.4 111.9 60.5 59.0 48.2 67.1 79.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 34.9 38.6 54.8 110.4 61.6 57.3 22.8 29.9 39.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 44.8 44.3 57.6 108.8 58.8 56.8 31.2 39.3 46.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 34.7 41.7 53.2 113.3 63.6 59.9 24.9 30.0 42.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 44.9 45.3 53.8 115.1 63.7 61.1 21.7 41.3 46.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 45.4 62.4 57.5 119.5 70.3 63.7 27.4 40.7 61.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 55.8 60.1 56.4 107.2 60.3 55.0 40.9 53.1 62.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 44.6 31.0 54.0 118.6 67.7 61.1 18.0 27.0 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 37.9 47.6 54.9 117.6 69.5 62.0 22.4 32.5 43.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 30.7 36.2 43.7 113.6 67.3 60.1 22.1 27.5 35.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 43.2 50.7 62.2 106.3 57.8 54.3 27.0 39.0 60.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 34.7 38.5 46.4 110.7 63.7 57.5 22.8 30.3 39.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 47.0 49.8 77.5 111.1 61.3 57.0 24.6 43.1 56.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 41.3 41.9 51.6 111.6 60.8 57.0 23.8 38.3 42.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 40.2 39.9 45.5 114.3 68.4 60.2 21.1 31.8 39.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 35.2 34.7 48.8 108.8 59.6 56.0 22.4 32.8 35.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 51.3 51.5 55.3 106.1 57.8 54.1 34.2 46.1 56.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 41.2 44.0 54.7 110.4 58.6 56.5 29.4 38.7 47.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 50.8 51.2 59.8 121.6 69.8 64.9 24.3 37.8 47.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 38.1 39.9 51.9 111.1 59.5 56.7 21.3 32.6 41.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 32.6 36.6 53.8 116.2 66.0 60.1 20.8 26.5 36.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 71.5 75.6 68.1 108.3 58.3 55.6 49.8 67.7 80.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.1 37.9 45.6 109.6 62.0 56.3 19.6 25.1 39.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------