***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 11.5 117.3 64.8 60.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 4.8 9.7 11.6 117.5 65.6 60.4 0.9 2.8 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 7.0 11.7 11.2 113.7 62.5 59.6 2.2 4.1 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 12.2 13.2 12.4 119.6 65.7 60.0 6.0 10.5 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 9.7 15.8 12.1 115.5 65.2 58.3 6.2 8.0 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 7.6 10.0 12.8 126.0 67.6 59.9 4.2 6.3 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 4.3 6.2 11.6 118.2 64.1 59.9 1.2 2.7 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 19.8 21.9 13.0 115.7 67.3 59.1 12.7 18.6 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 8.9 10.3 12.0 111.8 61.6 57.0 3.8 7.3 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 13.3 16.8 12.6 111.7 64.2 57.3 6.5 11.4 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 8.7 14.6 11.6 118.0 68.7 59.2 3.9 6.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 10.3 14.7 11.5 117.9 68.9 59.5 5.4 8.8 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.8 12.3 120.0 68.4 59.4 4.4 9.8 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 11.0 16.5 13.2 110.1 63.5 58.6 4.4 9.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 8.0 13.3 11.8 124.7 69.1 61.2 1.8 6.4 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 8.9 13.6 12.0 122.2 69.1 60.1 4.6 7.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 4.9 8.2 11.7 123.8 66.8 61.0 1.1 3.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 11.6 12.7 14.0 108.8 62.5 56.8 4.0 8.9 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 5.7 11.8 11.5 114.7 65.8 60.3 1.6 2.9 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.7 15.0 18.3 115.5 65.2 59.7 4.6 7.6 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 8.3 13.6 11.7 116.2 63.2 59.2 1.9 6.1 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 6.1 12.2 12.4 125.7 68.2 62.1 1.7 4.3 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 6.4 10.4 11.7 112.0 63.8 59.8 2.3 4.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 9.4 8.5 12.5 109.9 61.4 57.5 3.4 7.1 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 8.9 9.2 13.3 117.3 63.2 60.7 2.0 6.9 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.6 12.7 12.7 121.9 69.7 60.7 2.7 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 7.8 8.7 12.7 115.9 64.3 60.7 2.0 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 7.0 11.1 11.8 122.5 69.1 60.4 1.6 5.3 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 19.4 20.8 15.7 111.5 64.0 57.6 10.2 16.3 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 5.3 7.5 11.4 115.4 64.3 60.2 1.5 3.1 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------