***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 14.2 123.8 65.2 59.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.5 6.8 13.8 126.8 67.3 60.5 1.5 2.8 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 7.1 8.2 14.3 122.2 63.5 59.1 2.6 6.4 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.4 17.0 15.5 124.8 66.0 60.5 3.9 8.6 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.0 12.4 15.8 126.6 65.6 60.7 3.1 9.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 9.7 10.9 16.9 134.2 71.3 63.7 3.5 6.7 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.2 8.0 13.5 124.2 66.5 59.9 2.2 4.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 19.5 21.2 17.7 135.7 70.7 64.2 7.2 14.8 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.6 10.7 16.1 126.4 69.3 60.2 2.7 6.1 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.4 13.7 17.1 128.6 69.0 62.0 3.8 6.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 8.1 10.5 15.3 131.2 67.6 63.1 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 11.7 11.8 15.7 139.2 73.0 65.1 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.9 16.5 139.3 73.8 65.3 3.6 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 13.0 16.2 16.3 125.7 62.1 59.7 6.5 11.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.7 10.3 15.0 127.3 69.2 61.6 0.6 4.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 9.9 10.7 15.5 134.6 70.5 63.9 2.6 6.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 7.6 11.7 12.8 126.9 69.6 60.7 2.3 6.2 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.8 11.3 18.4 127.3 69.4 61.3 3.0 6.9 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.4 9.9 14.0 126.7 66.3 60.4 2.9 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.3 10.1 23.4 136.5 69.2 63.0 4.3 7.7 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.3 11.3 14.9 123.6 65.8 59.2 3.4 6.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.5 10.5 13.4 129.6 71.8 61.0 2.6 5.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.3 10.5 14.3 124.8 64.2 59.8 1.7 5.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.3 15.6 16.0 122.3 66.5 59.5 4.2 8.9 15.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.9 16.1 122.5 65.7 59.3 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 9.4 11.2 17.4 144.5 74.6 66.4 1.6 4.3 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 8.5 8.9 15.5 122.6 64.4 59.6 4.2 6.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.7 11.3 15.0 126.9 67.8 61.8 0.5 5.3 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 15.6 18.2 20.1 130.2 68.9 61.6 7.4 13.3 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.0 7.8 14.0 125.3 64.5 59.9 2.2 4.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------