***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.0 108.3 69.1 55.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.2 4.1 11.2 116.3 64.0 56.1 0.8 2.6 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 1.2 6.0 11.1 105.5 64.6 55.1 1.2 2.3 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.8 11.9 12.8 112.3 67.9 58.3 5.8 7.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.1 11.7 11.7 97.7 62.8 53.9 5.4 7.9 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.5 8.1 13.3 103.6 65.2 56.0 2.5 6.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.8 11.2 114.7 64.6 55.6 1.5 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.3 16.0 12.8 98.6 64.1 53.3 7.6 12.2 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.9 11.7 95.5 62.4 53.3 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.9 7.5 12.3 93.1 60.7 51.9 2.7 6.1 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.7 7.5 11.4 98.2 65.0 53.6 3.6 6.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 1.8 6.8 11.7 100.1 66.9 54.1 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.8 12.3 98.3 63.7 53.3 3.5 7.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.5 5.9 13.0 97.0 58.7 52.1 3.2 5.0 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 8.2 9.1 13.9 134.3 73.6 63.7 0.3 1.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.9 8.8 12.0 101.4 66.9 54.7 4.5 6.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 3.4 4.9 10.8 118.4 64.5 56.4 0.8 2.5 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.7 13.5 90.4 57.2 50.0 2.9 5.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.0 4.3 11.5 116.2 64.8 57.0 0.7 2.4 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.6 7.1 17.7 103.8 61.6 53.1 2.5 4.8 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.2 11.1 98.6 63.8 54.3 3.3 4.4 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 4.2 4.9 11.2 121.3 67.1 56.7 0.5 3.1 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 1.0 4.5 12.1 112.0 65.9 57.0 0.8 2.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.7 12.3 93.4 58.6 51.7 3.5 6.0 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.3 9.8 12.1 104.2 64.7 54.6 2.3 7.1 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.9 9.9 13.6 108.4 67.9 55.3 3.3 6.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.8 7.1 11.8 107.0 65.3 54.4 0.6 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 3.5 6.3 12.9 115.7 70.0 59.4 0.9 2.0 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.9 15.2 94.8 58.2 50.8 4.1 10.4 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 3.9 4.0 11.2 113.8 64.0 55.6 1.1 2.9 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------