***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 4.9 0.3 50.6 53.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.8 4.7 4.8 0.4 55.9 54.7 2.6 4.1 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.9 5.2 0.3 51.5 53.7 3.5 4.7 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.1 -0.5 2.6 -0.2 46.5 48.0 -1.5 -0.4 0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.1 3.4 -0.1 45.8 48.8 3.6 4.8 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.1 3.5 1.5 -0.5 39.0 43.9 3.4 4.3 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.3 4.9 4.6 0.4 56.8 54.7 2.1 3.7 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.5 -2.2 2.6 -0.2 45.8 48.3 -2.8 -2.0 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.4 4.4 0.1 50.2 52.1 3.9 5.3 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.6 3.4 0.0 47.8 50.1 3.8 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.5 3.5 -0.1 46.0 49.2 3.8 5.1 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.7 3.2 -0.2 44.6 47.8 4.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.8 4.5 2.5 -0.4 40.6 44.3 4.1 4.8 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.2 4.7 0.2 51.0 52.6 4.1 6.1 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.0 3.2 0.2 54.6 52.7 3.2 5.8 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.0 4.9 2.9 -0.3 43.1 46.4 4.4 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.5 5.3 4.5 0.4 58.8 54.7 2.3 4.1 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.5 2.8 -0.2 43.7 47.9 3.2 4.3 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.4 5.1 0.4 54.7 54.4 2.6 4.2 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.3 1.3 0.7 -0.4 39.3 44.2 0.8 1.7 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.8 4.9 0.2 49.2 52.6 3.7 5.0 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.0 5.9 4.9 0.4 57.6 54.4 2.6 4.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.1 5.3 0.3 53.1 54.0 3.2 4.5 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.5 5.8 4.4 0.1 48.8 51.3 4.2 6.1 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.3 3.5 3.4 0.1 47.7 51.2 2.7 3.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.4 4.6 2.2 -0.6 39.2 41.7 4.3 4.9 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.4 4.1 0.2 49.9 52.5 3.3 4.4 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.3 2.9 -0.1 49.7 48.8 3.9 6.4 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.0 1.0 2.0 -0.2 42.5 47.0 0.7 1.7 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.7 4.2 5.0 0.4 54.2 54.6 2.6 4.0 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------