***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.3 -0.1 46.5 51.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.1 3.2 6.0 -0.2 42.0 50.1 2.4 4.3 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.6 3.7 6.6 -0.1 45.1 50.3 3.1 4.8 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 -3.7 -2.1 4.5 -0.4 42.8 48.3 -2.6 -1.7 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.9 4.2 5.2 -0.3 43.3 48.3 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.2 4.2 3.0 -0.7 42.6 45.3 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 1.9 3.2 5.8 -0.2 44.2 50.4 1.9 3.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -5.1 -3.3 4.0 -0.6 40.6 46.6 -4.5 -2.6 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.5 5.4 5.9 -0.2 47.6 49.5 3.3 5.9 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.5 4.0 4.8 -0.4 42.8 47.8 3.6 5.1 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.9 4.6 5.2 -0.3 44.3 48.7 3.4 5.8 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.1 3.9 4.8 -0.5 42.6 47.7 3.1 5.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.6 3.9 4.0 -0.7 41.6 45.7 3.1 6.2 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.8 5.8 -0.4 45.0 48.5 2.8 5.7 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.3 3.9 4.6 -0.1 44.5 50.4 3.7 4.4 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.9 4.8 4.5 -0.5 42.3 47.3 3.4 6.6 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.2 2.9 5.6 -0.3 43.9 49.1 2.0 3.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.0 3.8 4.1 -0.7 42.4 46.3 3.3 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.0 3.6 6.2 -0.3 41.2 49.8 2.1 4.0 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.6 1.0 1.6 -1.1 36.2 42.0 0.6 2.2 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.9 5.1 6.4 -0.1 49.3 50.4 3.3 5.2 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.9 2.9 5.8 -0.5 39.6 48.1 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.6 3.3 6.5 -0.3 41.8 49.3 2.3 4.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.5 5.7 -0.3 45.0 48.7 3.3 4.7 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.3 3.6 4.9 -0.1 48.4 49.8 2.7 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.3 4.4 3.8 -0.8 40.4 44.2 3.4 5.5 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.8 4.3 5.5 -0.1 47.1 50.3 2.2 5.0 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.9 4.6 4.7 -0.3 42.9 48.7 3.9 5.2 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -0.8 0.2 3.1 -0.8 41.2 45.3 -0.7 2.0 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.1 3.3 6.2 -0.2 42.2 50.3 1.8 4.3 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------