***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-29.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9999.0 0.0 4.1 1.0 61.0 57.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 2.3 6.3 4.5 1.6 69.7 64.6 0.5 1.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 4.0 6.8 4.6 1.2 65.1 59.2 0.8 3.3 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.4 56.2 54.6 -1.9 -0.4 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 5.7 6.5 2.2 0.3 55.6 53.1 1.1 5.1 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.6 0.2 -0.4 47.5 47.3 1.2 5.0 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 2.1 6.3 4.1 1.5 67.9 63.1 0.1 1.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -0.2 -0.3 1.4 0.1 53.6 51.7 -2.2 -0.4 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 5.2 7.4 3.5 0.7 60.0 56.3 1.6 4.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 4.6 6.0 2.4 0.5 55.7 54.5 1.2 3.9 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 5.5 5.8 2.2 0.1 52.8 51.6 1.5 4.8 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.3 4.5 1.6 -0.2 50.2 49.1 1.4 4.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.8 3.6 1.4 -0.5 45.8 45.7 1.5 5.1 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 5.0 6.7 4.5 1.3 59.5 60.8 0.8 4.4 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 4.4 4.6 2.9 1.1 66.1 62.2 2.1 4.1 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.3 5.8 1.7 -0.1 50.8 49.5 2.0 5.5 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 49 51 100 3.9 5.9 4.2 1.7 73.8 67.4 0.3 1.6 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 3.5 3.4 1.8 0.3 53.6 52.9 1.0 2.9 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 2.4 7.0 4.7 1.7 68.7 64.3 -0.1 1.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.6 3.2 -0.2 -0.1 54.6 50.2 -0.3 2.0 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 4.9 7.0 4.0 0.9 61.2 57.1 1.8 4.3 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 47 53 100 4.6 6.7 4.7 1.9 73.1 68.6 0.8 1.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 3.3 6.5 4.9 1.6 67.0 63.2 0.4 2.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 5.0 5.7 3.7 0.9 57.0 57.0 1.6 4.2 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 3.7 5.0 2.6 0.7 57.7 54.9 0.6 3.2 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.9 3.3 0.3 -1.0 41.0 41.0 1.8 5.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 4.3 5.7 3.3 0.8 58.7 55.5 0.7 3.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 4.8 5.3 1.9 0.5 58.6 56.3 1.9 4.1 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 2.7 2.5 1.1 0.2 54.3 52.0 -0.8 2.2 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 2.4 6.2 4.5 1.5 68.1 62.1 0.2 1.8 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------