***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.6 0.8 54.2 59.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -2.3 -1.8 0.8 56.3 59.5 -5.1 -2.9 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 -0.5 -0.2 -1.7 0.9 57.0 60.2 -2.4 -1.0 0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 -6.2 -6.3 -4.3 0.6 52.1 55.0 -7.9 -6.5 -5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 -3.1 -2.9 -3.7 0.7 52.9 55.8 -4.3 -3.5 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 -4.1 -4.8 -6.4 -0.1 44.8 47.1 -5.2 -4.4 -3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 -1.9 -1.8 -1.8 0.7 56.8 59.0 -4.5 -2.3 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 -8.2 -8.3 -4.9 0.6 52.2 55.9 -9.4 -8.4 -7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 -1.7 -1.9 -2.9 1.0 55.9 59.8 -3.4 -2.1 -1.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 0.9 55.7 58.8 -3.8 -2.6 -1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 -2.7 -2.9 -4.0 0.6 53.0 54.9 -4.0 -3.0 -2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 -3.8 -4.1 -4.3 0.4 50.5 53.3 -4.9 -4.1 -3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 -2.9 -3.4 -5.0 0.1 46.3 49.3 -4.2 -3.1 -2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 -1.7 -1.5 -3.0 0.8 59.0 59.2 -3.3 -2.0 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 -2.1 -1.8 -3.6 1.0 58.8 59.9 -3.2 -2.3 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 -2.3 -2.6 -4.7 0.3 50.0 51.1 -3.3 -2.6 -1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 -2.3 -2.2 -1.9 0.6 57.3 58.5 -4.4 -2.9 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 -4.4 -4.0 -5.0 0.7 57.9 58.0 -5.7 -4.6 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 -2.3 -2.2 -1.7 0.8 56.9 60.1 -4.5 -2.8 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 -7.8 -7.4 -6.4 0.7 57.2 57.8 -9.4 -8.1 -6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 1.0 55.9 60.5 -3.8 -2.5 -1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 -2.7 -1.9 -1.7 0.7 57.8 59.3 -4.4 -3.3 -1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 -2.4 -2.3 -1.9 0.9 57.5 60.7 -4.3 -2.9 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 -2.5 -2.6 -3.4 0.8 57.7 58.2 -4.1 -2.8 -1.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 -3.0 -2.9 -3.3 0.7 53.1 56.2 -4.1 -3.4 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 -2.8 -3.6 -4.8 0.1 44.4 49.0 -4.0 -3.1 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 -2.3 -2.8 -2.5 0.7 52.7 57.1 -4.0 -2.9 -1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 -3.3 -3.4 -4.0 0.7 54.6 56.0 -4.8 -3.5 -2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 -5.3 -5.4 -5.9 0.5 54.6 55.2 -6.6 -5.5 -4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 -2.0 -2.1 -1.7 0.8 55.8 59.7 -4.2 -2.5 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------