***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.2 0.1 53.1 53.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 -4.7 -2.9 -1.5 0.0 47.8 52.1 -4.6 -2.6 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 -0.2 -0.2 -1.3 0.3 52.4 54.9 -2.7 -0.7 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -8.9 -8.0 -3.6 0.1 45.4 52.6 -9.2 -5.9 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 -5.1 -2.9 -3.1 0.2 48.7 53.7 -4.5 -2.8 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -3.1 -4.6 -5.5 -0.4 42.1 48.2 -5.2 -3.6 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 -4.2 -3.0 -1.6 -0.1 46.8 51.5 -4.6 -2.5 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -8.2 -8.9 -4.0 0.2 47.4 53.6 -12.3 -8.5 -8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 -1.7 -2.0 -2.4 0.3 52.3 55.0 -3.9 -2.2 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 -1.9 -2.2 -3.5 0.3 51.2 54.6 -3.7 -2.3 -1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 -4.2 -2.0 -3.2 0.3 51.3 54.3 -3.6 -2.0 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 -5.2 -3.4 -3.2 0.2 47.3 54.1 -5.6 -3.1 -2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 -2.0 -2.8 -4.0 0.0 47.1 51.9 -3.9 -2.6 -1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 -1.6 -1.7 -2.5 0.3 52.1 54.0 -3.5 -2.2 -0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -4.0 -2.3 -3.3 0.1 46.8 53.8 -2.8 -1.8 -0.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 -1.0 -1.2 -3.8 0.1 49.0 52.6 -3.3 -1.2 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 -4.5 -3.5 -1.8 -0.3 42.2 49.3 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 -3.6 -4.0 -4.1 0.2 52.5 53.9 -5.3 -4.1 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 -4.6 -3.2 -1.4 0.1 49.4 53.3 -4.5 -3.1 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -7.0 -7.8 -5.7 0.0 49.5 51.9 -10.2 -7.7 -5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 -2.3 -2.9 -1.7 0.3 51.8 54.6 -4.2 -3.0 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 -4.5 -3.1 -1.6 -0.2 43.6 50.2 -4.3 -2.5 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 -4.7 -3.5 -1.5 0.3 51.2 54.6 -4.1 -3.6 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 -2.8 -2.6 -2.6 0.3 54.5 55.0 -3.9 -3.5 -1.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 -4.7 -2.8 -2.8 0.1 49.0 53.0 -3.9 -2.7 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 -2.3 -3.4 -3.7 0.0 44.6 52.5 -4.2 -2.7 -1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 -4.4 -1.9 -2.0 0.1 50.2 52.9 -4.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 -5.2 -3.5 -3.5 0.1 45.5 52.7 -4.5 -3.3 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -4.8 -5.3 -4.9 0.0 49.7 52.2 -8.7 -5.3 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 -4.4 -2.5 -1.4 0.1 49.9 53.2 -4.3 -2.4 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------