***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.8 1.4 61.8 61.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 -2.4 -1.9 -2.0 1.2 56.8 59.0 -4.6 -3.1 -1.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 -0.4 -0.3 -1.9 1.4 60.8 61.3 -2.5 -1.0 1.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -6.4 -5.3 -4.3 1.2 61.6 59.4 -8.8 -7.1 -4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 -2.8 -2.1 -3.8 1.3 62.5 61.3 -4.9 -3.3 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -3.9 -4.0 -6.2 0.7 54.6 57.3 -6.7 -4.3 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 -2.1 -1.9 -2.1 1.1 57.0 58.7 -4.5 -2.7 -1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 -6.7 -7.4 -4.5 1.6 59.4 63.3 -10.1 -8.1 -7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 -0.5 -1.7 -2.9 1.6 63.5 64.1 -4.0 -2.5 -1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 -1.8 -1.6 -3.9 1.8 63.8 64.7 -4.6 -3.3 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 -2.7 -2.3 -3.9 1.4 60.9 62.0 -5.2 -3.3 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 -2.8 -3.9 -3.9 1.3 55.7 61.5 -6.0 -4.2 -3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 -2.8 -2.9 -4.8 0.9 53.5 58.3 -5.3 -3.2 -2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 -0.9 -0.9 -3.1 1.3 60.9 59.9 -3.6 -1.4 -0.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 -0.9 -1.2 -3.8 1.5 63.4 61.8 -3.5 -2.8 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 -2.2 -2.4 -4.6 1.0 55.0 58.5 -4.5 -2.8 -1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 -2.2 -2.4 -2.1 1.1 57.2 58.1 -4.7 -2.8 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 -4.5 -3.8 -4.6 1.6 63.0 63.4 -5.7 -4.9 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 -1.7 -2.0 -2.0 1.2 57.3 59.1 -4.2 -2.4 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 -8.8 -8.0 -5.9 1.7 63.2 64.2 -10.3 -9.6 -7.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 -1.1 -1.3 -2.2 1.5 62.9 62.8 -4.0 -2.9 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -2.0 -2.0 1.0 56.9 57.6 -3.9 -2.4 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 -2.4 -2.0 -2.1 1.2 57.9 59.5 -4.1 -2.8 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 -2.4 -2.1 -3.3 1.4 60.6 61.6 -4.4 -2.8 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -2.7 -1.8 -3.5 1.2 61.2 60.3 -4.6 -3.6 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 -3.2 -3.4 -4.4 1.0 54.4 58.9 -5.3 -3.7 -2.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 -2.7 -2.2 -2.7 1.2 59.1 60.2 -4.4 -3.7 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 -3.5 -2.8 -4.2 1.2 59.3 59.0 -5.4 -3.9 -2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 -5.2 -5.2 -5.4 1.4 62.8 62.2 -7.4 -6.0 -4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -1.9 -1.9 1.2 58.7 59.5 -4.3 -2.9 -0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------