***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-29.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 9999.0 0.0 -2.0 1.1 53.2 57.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 -2.4 -0.8 -1.6 1.5 67.1 64.7 -4.6 -2.7 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 -0.6 -0.7 -2.1 1.1 55.3 57.6 -3.2 -0.9 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 -5.8 -5.8 -5.0 0.7 51.2 52.3 -8.8 -6.0 -4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 -2.3 -3.0 -4.4 0.5 45.8 49.3 -4.0 -2.5 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 -3.2 -4.6 -7.8 -0.8 40.5 39.5 -5.0 -3.5 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 -2.1 -0.7 -1.8 1.4 63.3 62.9 -4.8 -2.4 -0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 -6.9 -8.0 -6.4 -0.1 44.0 44.6 -9.4 -7.1 -6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 -1.4 -1.9 -3.5 0.8 49.0 53.4 -4.0 -1.8 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 -1.9 -2.3 -5.3 0.4 48.1 49.5 -3.8 -2.1 -1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 -2.0 -2.8 -5.3 -0.2 40.1 42.9 -3.4 -2.3 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 -2.6 -4.0 -5.9 -0.5 39.0 41.1 -4.7 -3.2 -0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 -1.8 -3.2 -6.4 -1.0 34.3 37.6 -3.5 -2.2 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 91 9 100 -1.5 -1.3 -3.4 1.0 53.5 56.0 -3.7 -1.7 -0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 -2.6 -1.9 -3.0 1.7 58.6 61.0 -4.7 -2.9 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 -1.3 -2.8 -6.0 -0.5 38.4 41.0 -3.1 -1.8 0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 -2.4 -0.9 -1.6 1.7 67.2 66.1 -4.4 -2.7 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 -4.1 -4.4 -6.5 0.1 45.0 47.6 -4.8 -4.4 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 -2.2 -0.7 -1.7 1.5 65.6 64.0 -4.6 -2.4 -0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 94 6 100 -6.7 -7.4 -7.6 0.3 47.3 49.4 -9.0 -6.9 -5.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 -2.0 -2.3 -2.4 1.2 51.8 56.7 -4.0 -2.4 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 -2.4 -0.8 -1.4 1.8 68.4 68.1 -5.0 -2.8 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 -2.1 -1.1 -2.0 1.3 62.4 61.5 -4.0 -2.3 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 -2.1 -2.5 -4.5 0.4 47.9 50.6 -4.5 -2.4 -1.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 -2.7 -3.4 -3.7 0.6 48.4 50.5 -4.1 -3.2 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 -2.3 -3.7 -6.7 -1.1 35.4 36.5 -4.3 -2.9 -1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 -1.9 -2.4 -2.9 0.8 49.8 52.9 -4.9 -2.4 0.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 -3.4 -2.8 -4.2 1.0 54.1 55.6 -5.9 -3.7 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 -4.7 -5.5 -7.5 -0.3 44.1 45.0 -7.4 -4.9 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 -2.3 -0.7 -1.7 1.4 63.3 62.0 -4.6 -2.5 -0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------