***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.6 10.6 9.6 95.8 60.3 46.3 2.0 4.5 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.9 11.6 9.3 114.1 65.9 49.9 1.0 4.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.1 11.7 9.5 96.8 61.0 48.5 1.7 5.7 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.6 11.0 93.4 61.2 47.1 6.1 10.9 16.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.6 14.7 10.5 91.0 58.3 48.3 6.6 11.0 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.0 11.9 109.3 64.4 53.3 4.7 7.3 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.6 7.1 9.0 111.4 64.4 49.2 0.9 3.3 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 12.7 23.3 12.0 101.1 61.7 53.5 12.6 18.5 23.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.0 10.8 90.1 57.0 48.4 4.2 8.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.8 15.9 12.0 95.8 59.6 51.8 6.6 11.5 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.8 10.5 94.7 60.3 50.9 4.0 9.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.6 10.7 100.5 61.8 53.1 6.5 10.8 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.7 12.9 11.9 102.9 61.5 52.8 4.3 10.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.3 16.4 12.2 97.6 61.8 50.4 4.0 11.4 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.2 12.2 11.4 101.3 64.7 48.3 1.6 6.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.6 10.9 98.0 60.7 51.3 3.8 8.5 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.9 8.0 8.8 115.4 66.5 49.8 1.3 4.0 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.9 13.7 12.8 96.2 60.6 52.1 4.3 10.3 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.1 13.8 9.5 112.2 65.9 50.4 1.8 6.5 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.2 13.4 16.3 105.0 62.9 54.0 5.1 6.6 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.8 13.1 10.0 90.1 57.7 47.0 3.3 8.3 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.6 10.3 9.5 118.3 67.7 50.9 1.8 5.3 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.6 11.6 9.9 105.3 65.1 50.7 2.4 5.5 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.2 11.9 11.2 94.4 61.0 50.6 5.3 9.5 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.2 10.2 10.8 92.6 58.5 45.4 1.7 6.2 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.5 11.0 11.4 107.6 66.4 54.4 2.7 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.5 10.2 95.5 60.2 46.0 1.8 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.2 11.1 10.7 96.1 61.8 48.8 2.9 7.9 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 11.8 24.4 14.1 100.1 61.2 52.6 10.8 16.6 27.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.8 9.7 9.3 108.1 65.2 49.1 1.5 3.8 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------