***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 6.0 6.0 8.4 86.7 54.1 45.1 0.9 4.6 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.3 4.6 7.1 80.7 53.7 45.2 1.6 3.8 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.2 7.5 9.0 95.5 58.4 47.5 2.0 6.4 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.4 9.9 9.7 88.7 57.5 49.2 3.9 8.6 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.4 10.3 91.9 56.9 49.5 3.0 9.9 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.6 6.9 8.4 73.3 47.0 43.0 3.2 7.5 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.8 7.1 81.8 53.7 45.9 2.8 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.3 12.4 10.5 87.7 53.4 46.2 6.1 10.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.7 11.5 97.8 57.7 50.3 3.1 5.7 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.9 6.5 11.4 93.1 54.5 47.8 4.1 6.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.5 9.5 86.4 55.1 47.9 4.7 7.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.5 5.3 9.1 83.9 54.0 46.1 2.3 5.2 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.0 7.8 9.2 77.9 50.0 44.6 4.2 7.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.3 11.2 12.4 99.1 58.2 47.6 6.5 10.1 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.0 9.1 86.3 61.9 50.0 1.6 6.3 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.8 8.8 79.9 51.4 45.8 3.2 7.6 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.7 6.8 6.8 76.7 51.4 44.0 3.3 6.0 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.5 7.5 13.0 100.3 57.6 47.4 2.9 6.6 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.1 7.6 85.3 55.3 46.0 2.7 6.6 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.0 8.1 15.1 95.3 56.5 44.8 3.4 5.3 9.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.4 10.5 98.7 58.5 49.5 3.4 8.1 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.7 5.9 7.1 75.8 50.6 43.5 3.4 5.9 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.8 9.2 8.9 94.1 58.5 48.0 0.9 5.8 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.9 13.1 11.8 101.3 59.0 48.4 4.2 8.0 14.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.8 10.3 93.6 57.5 47.9 3.9 6.4 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.7 8.7 76.5 49.6 43.3 1.0 4.9 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.4 6.8 9.0 87.6 53.7 45.8 2.8 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.9 8.8 8.8 83.0 56.9 48.1 1.2 4.9 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.4 15.6 14.3 101.9 59.6 47.1 5.7 12.1 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.7 7.5 84.4 55.4 46.2 2.1 4.3 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------