***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 0.8 0.8 6.6 57.8 41.5 36.3 0.4 1.7 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 4.1 1.6 5.3 55.3 44.2 38.0 1.1 3.5 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.1 2.5 6.6 59.0 41.9 36.8 1.6 3.8 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.0 5.5 7.3 56.2 38.2 35.4 5.0 7.4 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.1 7.1 8.0 62.2 38.3 36.8 5.1 9.8 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.7 3.9 8.8 69.8 42.7 38.4 2.5 5.5 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.0 5.1 54.5 43.5 37.9 1.4 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.4 11.9 9.0 64.6 40.4 37.4 6.3 13.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.8 4.2 8.7 65.4 38.8 37.3 3.9 5.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.2 5.4 9.0 65.4 38.3 37.2 3.9 6.6 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.9 4.1 8.5 65.2 38.6 38.1 2.6 5.9 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 1.8 2.8 8.2 63.3 40.4 37.0 1.4 4.4 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.2 4.2 8.7 64.4 39.3 37.0 2.5 7.4 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 2.8 4.7 9.0 63.3 40.6 37.2 4.0 5.3 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 0.8 0.8 5.9 50.8 41.2 35.4 0.5 1.9 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.3 3.0 8.1 61.9 38.3 36.4 1.0 7.1 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.3 1.7 5.1 56.2 45.6 39.0 1.0 2.4 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.5 3.9 9.8 68.5 39.6 37.8 3.8 6.3 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.3 1.5 5.7 56.3 43.2 37.5 0.6 2.5 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 2.9 4.2 11.3 64.2 40.2 36.7 2.9 6.4 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.5 4.1 8.0 63.0 40.0 36.5 3.7 5.2 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.4 2.3 5.6 57.7 44.7 38.6 0.6 2.5 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 1.1 1.0 6.5 58.6 40.6 37.2 0.9 2.2 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.7 4.3 8.9 65.9 39.4 36.9 3.8 7.4 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.1 5.1 8.5 65.5 41.4 38.8 1.4 6.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.3 3.6 8.0 60.5 37.9 34.4 2.9 5.6 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 1.8 2.8 7.7 64.6 42.4 39.2 2.0 3.7 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.6 1.3 6.6 53.6 40.1 35.0 0.5 3.9 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.2 9.0 10.9 69.3 41.5 37.9 6.9 12.0 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.5 2.0 5.5 55.0 43.5 37.4 1.0 2.7 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------