***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.01.2018.-28.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 2.4 1.0 3.4 29.3 24.4 21.6 4.6 7.7 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 1.1 0.7 2.9 28.8 24.2 21.4 2.6 4.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 2.4 1.3 3.7 30.5 23.7 22.0 3.6 8.1 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 2.0 1.3 3.8 24.9 23.2 20.2 2.1 8.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 2.5 2.2 5.5 37.8 25.4 23.7 3.5 7.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 2.8 4.2 6.0 44.3 31.1 29.5 4.4 6.5 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 1.2 0.7 2.9 30.6 25.4 22.8 1.2 5.6 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 3.9 3.3 6.5 40.7 22.4 24.1 4.0 11.1 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 2.0 0.7 4.9 35.9 24.2 22.9 3.4 7.1 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 2.7 1.5 7.1 44.5 24.2 25.7 4.4 7.5 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 1.6 1.5 5.7 38.7 24.9 24.4 3.4 6.8 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 1.9 1.4 4.7 34.3 22.0 22.1 2.9 4.8 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.1 4.7 7.8 49.2 31.5 29.5 4.8 7.4 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 2.9 2.1 5.0 31.9 21.6 21.0 7.3 12.4 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 0.9 0.3 2.5 16.6 26.3 22.4 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 1.5 1.4 5.6 38.1 26.8 25.2 2.6 4.8 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 1.0 0.4 2.8 32.0 23.2 22.4 1.4 4.7 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 2.7 2.0 7.1 43.9 22.7 24.8 4.0 7.1 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 1.7 1.3 3.0 28.7 24.4 21.4 2.8 7.8 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 2.9 1.0 7.9 44.1 21.5 24.1 2.3 9.6 13.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 1.9 1.2 4.2 32.8 23.2 22.3 3.8 7.4 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 1.1 0.2 3.0 30.7 23.2 21.6 3.2 6.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 1.6 0.7 3.4 29.4 24.9 21.6 3.9 6.8 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 3.2 3.7 5.3 36.8 23.9 23.6 5.8 11.2 15.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 2.2 2.0 4.3 30.5 23.6 21.5 4.9 7.4 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 2.5 1.9 5.8 40.7 27.3 26.9 3.1 6.5 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 1.8 1.1 3.7 29.9 24.6 21.9 2.7 6.1 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 0.9 0.4 3.6 24.0 25.1 22.1 1.1 4.5 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 4.6 2.9 7.2 43.6 22.1 24.1 6.1 12.2 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 1.3 0.8 3.0 28.6 24.1 21.6 2.2 6.9 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------