***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.01.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.7 5.4 0.8 57.7 56.9 2.7 5.0 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 4.5 5.9 5.9 1.2 62.5 60.9 2.6 3.8 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.4 6.2 5.9 0.9 58.7 58.2 3.5 4.7 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.5 0.0 2.0 0.3 53.3 52.4 -1.6 0.0 0.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.9 3.6 0.5 56.0 54.2 3.3 5.0 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.1 3.8 1.9 -0.1 47.8 47.9 3.2 4.1 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 4.1 6.2 5.8 1.1 63.2 60.8 2.0 3.5 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.5 -1.4 3.1 0.5 57.0 55.5 -2.6 -2.0 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.9 6.5 4.6 0.6 56.8 55.8 3.9 5.2 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.8 3.6 0.5 55.6 54.6 3.8 5.1 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.5 3.6 0.4 54.0 53.4 3.7 5.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.0 3.5 0.5 55.8 54.7 4.2 4.7 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.3 2.9 0.1 52.4 49.9 3.9 5.0 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.8 5.5 1.1 61.5 60.7 3.9 6.3 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.6 3.0 0.1 49.2 51.3 3.2 5.6 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.5 2.9 0.2 51.5 50.9 4.2 5.4 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 4.5 5.9 5.9 1.3 65.3 62.9 2.3 3.8 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.9 5.1 3.8 0.7 57.3 56.4 3.0 4.3 6.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.6 5.6 6.0 1.2 62.1 60.8 2.7 3.9 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 0.3 1.7 2.0 0.6 57.3 56.3 1.1 1.5 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.2 5.3 0.7 57.8 56.8 3.6 5.1 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 6.5 6.2 6.1 1.3 65.3 63.1 2.6 4.4 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.0 6.0 6.3 1.2 63.3 61.2 3.1 4.4 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.5 5.2 0.9 59.6 58.2 4.2 5.9 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.8 3.7 0.5 54.0 54.6 2.6 3.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.7 2.6 0.3 56.0 52.4 4.2 4.6 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.1 5.4 4.8 0.7 56.6 56.2 3.2 4.4 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.4 2.5 0.2 50.6 51.4 3.8 6.2 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 0.8 1.9 3.3 0.7 58.2 56.9 0.5 1.8 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.2 5.5 5.8 1.1 61.1 59.6 2.7 3.6 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------