***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.1 6.5 0.5 54.2 54.5 2.4 5.0 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.3 6.6 0.6 53.3 55.4 2.4 3.7 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.8 6.8 0.4 54.7 54.0 2.7 4.4 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -3.1 -0.4 3.5 0.3 56.6 52.4 -3.4 -0.5 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.1 6.1 4.8 0.3 55.9 52.5 2.5 4.8 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.3 3.4 0.2 52.1 50.9 2.3 5.0 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 4.4 4.2 6.7 0.7 55.7 56.0 2.1 3.5 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.7 -1.7 4.3 0.4 54.8 54.1 -4.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.3 5.6 0.3 56.0 52.9 2.6 4.8 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.4 4.9 0.3 54.7 53.4 2.8 4.8 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.5 6.5 4.8 0.3 54.9 52.7 3.2 5.0 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.3 4.8 0.5 56.0 54.2 2.9 5.3 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.9 4.2 0.5 57.7 54.2 3.3 6.0 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.6 6.3 0.6 56.5 55.6 3.2 4.4 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.8 4.2 0.4 55.9 53.6 3.5 4.4 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.1 6.7 4.3 0.3 54.7 52.5 3.3 6.4 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 4.0 3.8 6.7 0.6 54.9 55.7 2.5 3.0 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 5.3 6.0 5.2 0.5 54.9 55.4 2.7 4.3 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.2 6.7 0.5 53.9 55.0 2.1 3.3 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.8 3.1 3.2 0.6 56.1 56.7 0.1 2.3 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.5 6.2 0.3 54.7 53.2 2.7 4.6 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.5 6.7 0.5 53.5 54.9 2.5 4.0 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.7 5.2 7.0 0.5 56.2 55.0 2.5 3.6 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.0 6.1 0.4 54.7 54.6 3.0 4.6 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.7 4.7 0.4 54.8 53.5 2.5 4.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.2 8.0 4.3 0.8 62.3 56.7 3.3 5.2 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.1 5.9 0.5 54.4 54.6 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.8 4.9 3.7 0.2 55.3 52.2 3.7 4.3 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.8 3.0 4.6 0.6 56.1 56.4 -0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.6 6.6 0.6 53.4 55.1 2.0 3.6 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------