***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.8 5.2 0.6 53.8 54.5 3.5 7.4 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.3 7.7 5.7 1.1 58.1 57.6 4.1 6.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.4 5.8 0.8 56.4 55.3 4.7 7.6 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.8 1.1 2.2 0.3 54.2 52.9 -0.1 0.8 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.2 3.5 0.4 55.2 53.6 5.3 7.9 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.2 5.6 1.9 -0.3 45.1 48.6 5.0 6.4 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.2 7.1 5.7 1.1 57.9 57.5 2.8 6.3 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.0 -0.6 2.8 0.1 48.2 51.3 -2.3 -0.6 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.1 8.4 4.3 0.4 55.6 53.3 5.9 8.1 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.9 3.4 0.2 50.7 51.7 5.8 7.9 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.9 3.4 0.3 52.8 52.5 5.5 7.8 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.7 3.3 0.2 50.8 51.9 5.7 7.5 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.1 6.9 2.4 -0.2 46.5 49.3 5.0 7.3 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.2 5.1 0.7 56.5 54.6 6.1 7.9 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.5 3.0 0.4 53.5 54.0 4.7 7.2 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.4 7.7 2.8 0.0 50.8 50.8 5.6 7.7 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.6 8.3 5.8 1.2 60.1 58.4 4.3 5.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.8 3.5 0.2 51.2 51.8 5.0 6.5 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.0 8.0 5.9 1.1 58.5 57.2 3.8 7.0 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.8 1.5 0.0 46.0 50.6 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.6 5.0 0.5 55.6 54.1 5.2 7.6 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.7 8.9 5.9 1.1 60.6 57.9 4.6 6.8 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.3 6.1 1.0 58.7 56.4 5.0 7.2 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.8 4.8 0.5 54.7 53.6 6.2 8.1 9.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.7 3.3 0.4 53.7 53.1 4.7 6.5 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.2 2.6 0.1 49.3 51.4 4.8 7.3 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.6 4.5 0.5 53.7 53.7 4.6 7.4 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.4 2.5 0.2 52.9 52.5 4.9 8.0 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 4.3 3.6 2.9 0.1 49.1 51.2 2.0 3.6 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.6 5.6 1.0 57.3 56.8 3.8 6.9 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------