***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 3.4 5.7 5.9 1.6 64.2 60.6 1.8 2.4 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 4.7 5.3 6.4 2.0 64.2 63.5 1.8 4.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 5.5 6.4 6.4 1.8 62.7 61.1 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -3.7 0.4 2.4 1.0 58.4 55.2 -3.0 -2.0 0.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.4 3.9 1.2 59.9 57.4 3.3 3.6 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.8 3.9 2.2 0.5 51.4 52.8 2.0 3.8 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 4.6 5.1 6.3 2.0 65.2 63.6 1.4 4.1 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -3.2 -0.7 3.4 1.2 60.7 58.3 -3.1 -1.9 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.6 5.1 1.4 62.1 59.2 3.5 4.6 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.3 6.2 4.0 1.1 59.7 57.2 3.2 4.2 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.9 4.1 1.1 58.8 57.2 3.2 4.0 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.2 3.8 1.2 59.9 58.4 3.3 4.7 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.7 4.3 3.3 0.6 52.9 53.6 3.2 4.1 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 6.5 7.7 5.8 1.6 62.6 60.3 3.8 5.8 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.7 4.0 1.2 57.8 56.3 3.0 4.0 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.1 4.8 3.2 0.8 54.9 54.6 3.4 4.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 4.7 5.3 6.4 2.1 66.4 64.5 1.4 4.2 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.5 3.8 1.1 60.0 56.9 3.0 3.7 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 4.8 5.4 6.6 2.1 63.9 63.3 2.2 4.2 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 0.1 2.5 2.2 1.0 58.7 57.1 0.3 2.1 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.0 6.4 5.9 1.5 62.8 59.8 3.3 4.1 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 5.2 5.8 6.6 2.0 65.0 64.0 2.2 4.6 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 4.6 6.1 6.7 2.0 63.6 63.2 2.3 4.0 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.1 5.5 1.4 61.1 59.0 3.7 5.7 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 3.8 4.0 4.2 1.2 59.5 57.5 2.2 2.8 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.7 2.9 1.0 57.6 57.4 3.1 4.6 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 4.6 5.9 5.2 1.4 61.6 59.6 2.2 3.9 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.3 5.4 3.2 1.1 56.6 55.5 3.1 5.2 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 0.2 2.6 3.3 1.1 59.4 57.0 0.7 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 4.4 5.9 6.4 2.0 63.6 63.1 1.7 3.8 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------