***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.01.2018.-28.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 3.4 4.5 3.9 0.3 54.5 52.3 0.6 2.4 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 3.0 3.3 4.8 1.0 58.4 58.3 0.3 2.1 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 4.5 5.4 4.7 0.8 56.7 56.0 1.2 3.6 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 47.7 46.3 -2.6 0.2 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.5 2.0 0.0 49.9 49.8 1.6 5.6 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.6 3.0 0.2 -0.7 40.6 43.4 2.4 5.1 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 2.7 3.2 4.5 0.8 57.4 56.8 -0.1 1.8 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -0.5 -0.4 1.8 0.4 53.0 52.7 -2.4 -0.9 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 5.7 7.0 3.3 0.4 54.8 52.4 2.1 4.8 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.1 4.9 2.4 0.3 52.2 51.8 1.4 4.3 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.0 2.3 -0.1 49.0 48.6 1.7 5.2 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.8 1.9 0.1 50.8 50.3 1.6 4.6 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.3 2.9 1.7 -0.7 42.6 44.4 2.1 4.9 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 4.9 7.6 5.0 1.6 61.5 61.5 0.9 4.1 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.1 2.7 0.8 -1.4 39.2 39.2 1.5 3.9 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.9 3.3 1.3 -0.5 45.3 45.8 2.6 6.0 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 2.2 4.0 4.7 1.3 61.5 60.9 0.4 1.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.8 3.5 2.5 0.8 54.6 55.2 1.1 3.2 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 3.2 4.3 5.0 1.1 59.4 59.4 -0.1 2.1 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.0 2.2 1.2 0.6 52.1 53.4 -1.0 2.1 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.4 6.0 4.2 0.6 55.3 54.2 2.5 4.5 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 2.9 5.9 5.3 1.6 64.0 63.6 0.6 1.9 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 3.7 6.0 5.2 1.4 61.6 61.3 0.5 2.9 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.8 4.5 1.1 58.8 58.1 1.1 3.9 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.1 3.7 2.5 0.0 50.6 49.7 0.7 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.3 3.8 0.7 -0.6 40.4 44.2 1.8 5.0 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.6 5.0 3.5 0.3 53.1 52.0 0.6 3.7 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.2 3.3 0.5 -0.9 43.9 43.4 2.3 4.2 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 3.1 2.6 2.2 0.8 54.1 55.2 -0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 3.2 2.9 4.6 0.8 56.9 56.5 0.0 2.2 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------