***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 40.6 47.0 57.6 140.7 78.9 73.3 18.7 25.4 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 36.6 51.0 53.3 150.6 83.5 74.3 14.6 22.1 34.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 51.5 60.1 57.2 141.0 80.0 73.5 22.9 37.3 41.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 58.1 67.3 70.9 156.0 83.7 79.1 35.7 41.2 50.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 54.9 60.3 62.5 137.2 78.7 73.2 33.1 41.8 51.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 46.8 51.5 57.7 130.9 77.7 70.1 26.4 35.0 46.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 39.1 49.7 51.6 148.9 82.4 73.3 19.2 21.0 30.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 75.7 75.9 65.2 129.5 71.2 69.2 48.9 65.2 71.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 41.8 46.0 61.1 131.7 76.0 71.3 23.3 30.6 37.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 53.5 48.2 62.1 125.1 69.2 67.8 32.1 41.0 45.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 49.6 50.4 59.9 131.8 75.0 71.0 26.6 34.3 44.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 54.1 50.7 60.1 131.2 73.5 70.5 24.4 38.8 46.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 58.5 61.6 60.8 127.2 73.6 69.3 28.4 41.4 57.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 63.2 68.5 65.8 131.3 76.7 71.0 38.7 50.3 64.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 60.8 84.2 76.3 181.2 88.6 82.8 17.5 27.0 36.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 53.6 60.6 59.6 133.5 76.9 71.7 22.8 31.3 40.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 38.2 46.3 51.9 153.0 85.5 74.6 20.6 24.7 33.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 50.8 51.4 63.4 121.5 69.3 65.9 30.9 39.6 49.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 44.4 56.6 55.0 149.0 82.6 74.4 21.1 28.7 35.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 54.3 60.2 87.0 133.7 75.2 70.3 28.6 42.8 54.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 45.3 50.8 60.5 136.9 78.9 72.9 26.6 33.2 42.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 39.6 45.6 55.2 153.2 85.0 74.5 19.5 28.7 38.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 40.4 45.7 57.9 144.0 80.8 73.9 21.7 29.3 35.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 55.6 59.5 61.1 128.1 73.5 69.2 38.1 46.2 54.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 48.1 52.8 66.5 141.8 80.4 74.8 26.1 37.1 45.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 51.5 56.5 64.8 137.4 77.5 72.9 21.4 37.7 47.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 47.3 55.7 60.0 138.5 78.6 72.6 21.0 27.9 41.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 53.8 69.4 67.7 160.3 84.4 78.9 18.0 29.9 39.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 46 54 100 77.9 82.3 69.1 123.7 70.5 66.6 52.6 66.9 76.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 37.6 46.1 54.2 147.5 82.0 73.6 18.5 23.0 37.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------