***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.2 12.9 13.6 133.1 68.4 61.8 0.7 4.4 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 9.1 10.1 12.8 142.6 73.5 63.1 1.2 3.2 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 18.3 14.2 13.4 133.3 69.9 61.8 0.6 7.4 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 18.6 22.1 16.6 148.3 77.6 62.9 5.9 12.4 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.2 20.5 15.0 134.5 72.4 61.4 3.4 11.2 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.4 13.3 122.0 67.0 57.1 4.5 7.5 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 6.7 7.7 12.6 144.4 73.8 63.5 0.6 2.5 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 23.0 23.7 14.5 118.5 65.9 57.4 12.4 21.6 23.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.9 13.8 15.0 129.3 70.7 60.6 1.5 9.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.5 18.0 14.8 120.9 66.8 58.5 4.9 11.5 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.3 13.6 125.2 69.1 59.2 1.8 11.0 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 15.4 17.5 13.4 121.3 67.1 57.8 4.6 13.1 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.7 15.1 14.0 120.9 65.9 57.7 4.4 10.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.9 18.0 16.7 132.3 69.9 62.1 3.7 13.3 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 12.9 16.2 17.6 167.1 80.0 64.3 1.5 8.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.9 15.1 13.8 127.5 68.6 59.1 1.7 7.7 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 6.4 6.3 12.7 145.2 73.9 62.9 1.1 3.2 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.1 14.9 15.4 118.8 65.8 58.3 4.2 8.0 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 13.1 16.1 13.1 140.1 73.0 62.4 1.8 5.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.8 14.9 19.0 119.1 65.7 57.8 5.4 7.4 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.6 18.8 14.5 134.3 72.4 62.3 1.6 8.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 9.3 9.6 13.2 140.9 74.7 61.7 2.4 4.9 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 12.8 13.8 13.9 136.6 71.8 61.8 2.1 8.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.0 17.1 14.9 126.0 68.1 60.5 5.4 9.7 15.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 20.5 25.5 15.9 137.7 71.0 62.7 1.1 6.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 9.4 11.1 14.1 120.5 65.6 57.2 2.7 6.7 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.9 11.3 14.3 132.5 68.3 61.8 0.6 5.1 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.4 18.2 15.8 150.1 77.0 62.3 1.6 7.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 21.7 28.0 16.2 117.7 65.9 58.2 10.1 18.3 28.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 9.6 9.8 13.0 139.8 72.2 62.9 1.6 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------