***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 4.8 6.7 12.7 125.2 65.5 58.6 0.6 4.0 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.6 15.0 12.3 135.7 71.7 60.6 0.8 3.3 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 7.8 10.7 12.6 126.3 67.6 59.7 1.9 6.7 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 13.1 14.9 14.9 142.5 73.8 64.2 3.9 6.8 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.2 13.0 13.7 130.7 70.0 62.5 3.0 9.0 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 8.0 10.5 13.1 132.9 71.1 62.0 4.0 7.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.7 8.9 12.1 134.0 70.9 60.6 1.9 4.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 11.6 14.1 14.4 123.0 67.1 60.3 6.0 10.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.7 10.1 13.8 122.6 68.2 60.6 3.3 5.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 7.9 12.0 14.1 121.1 65.7 59.8 3.2 6.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.8 10.1 13.4 130.4 69.8 61.9 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.8 7.4 13.3 126.8 68.8 61.0 1.9 4.6 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.8 10.6 13.5 128.1 70.2 61.5 4.4 7.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 10.5 11.5 14.4 117.5 64.7 57.5 6.0 8.9 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 9.5 11.8 15.8 158.0 75.7 64.8 0.5 3.7 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.6 10.8 13.1 131.7 70.7 62.0 3.7 5.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.9 11.6 12.4 138.2 73.6 61.0 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 7.5 7.4 14.3 115.4 63.6 58.1 3.3 5.9 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.9 14.7 12.6 135.3 70.6 60.3 1.4 5.4 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 6.3 7.0 18.8 115.0 63.6 58.0 3.2 5.3 7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 6.5 10.5 13.2 125.0 68.0 60.2 3.3 5.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.0 13.2 13.7 148.1 73.9 62.2 2.2 6.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 6.9 11.3 12.9 130.2 69.4 59.7 0.8 5.1 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 7.3 11.2 13.6 118.5 65.4 58.5 4.5 5.6 11.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 6.2 10.5 14.4 129.4 67.8 60.1 3.6 4.8 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.2 9.6 13.9 129.2 70.7 61.2 1.8 5.7 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 8.1 8.9 13.2 123.3 65.4 57.9 2.4 6.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 9.3 11.8 14.5 148.7 74.6 64.6 0.9 4.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 11.2 12.6 15.4 113.5 62.8 57.6 5.7 9.7 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 5.9 9.6 12.3 132.2 70.3 60.3 1.4 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------