***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 3.8 9.0 13.4 136.5 73.7 61.7 0.4 1.7 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 5.9 6.1 11.8 147.0 75.9 64.8 1.0 2.7 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.8 14.8 12.4 130.0 69.6 60.7 1.3 2.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 15.6 15.3 13.8 132.4 72.2 61.6 6.2 7.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.1 17.2 13.7 131.2 69.3 61.1 4.5 10.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.9 11.3 110.6 64.3 55.9 3.1 7.5 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.0 7.3 11.4 142.3 74.2 61.8 1.6 3.7 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.1 24.4 14.0 121.8 67.8 58.5 8.7 15.5 24.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.3 12.9 119.3 64.8 57.1 2.9 6.1 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.3 12.9 13.1 117.4 65.5 57.1 5.5 8.2 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.3 11.8 13.0 124.6 68.1 58.3 6.2 9.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.4 8.5 12.6 117.5 66.6 57.0 1.2 5.4 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.4 12.1 111.7 60.6 55.3 3.3 9.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 7.9 15.4 13.1 114.5 67.2 56.9 3.0 4.8 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 10.4 13.0 13.1 142.7 76.6 62.5 0.8 4.4 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.8 11.5 11.8 115.4 64.4 55.9 1.4 8.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 5.1 6.4 11.9 150.7 76.8 64.1 0.9 2.9 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.1 10.9 13.6 113.1 65.2 55.6 3.6 7.9 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 6.6 9.0 12.0 143.4 74.2 64.6 0.7 1.8 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 12.3 14.0 21.6 136.9 73.2 63.0 3.1 6.4 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.5 13.1 123.2 67.5 58.2 2.9 5.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 5.3 6.5 12.2 150.6 76.4 65.3 0.5 3.2 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 3.7 7.4 12.1 129.8 69.6 61.3 0.8 2.0 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.1 11.3 12.7 113.4 66.5 56.0 4.6 7.3 11.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.2 14.4 15.1 132.2 70.6 61.4 1.3 6.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.4 13.2 123.1 64.4 59.5 3.5 9.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.8 9.6 13.7 129.8 72.3 60.5 1.3 4.5 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 11.2 10.5 12.6 133.0 73.1 61.3 0.9 5.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.7 15.6 118.8 68.1 57.3 7.4 14.9 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 3.7 7.3 11.8 140.3 73.7 62.9 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------