***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 11.7 15.3 18.0 166.1 81.2 73.9 2.4 6.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 10.2 14.6 16.4 176.0 81.3 75.4 2.4 4.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 14.6 19.1 18.8 171.0 79.8 74.5 3.7 8.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 13.4 21.4 25.7 191.1 85.7 80.7 3.8 7.7 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 12.6 13.0 20.0 149.3 74.9 71.0 3.6 8.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 10.5 12.3 19.9 153.0 76.1 72.7 2.8 4.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 10.6 13.1 15.5 174.6 81.3 75.6 1.0 4.3 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 15.4 16.4 22.3 150.9 74.3 70.4 5.4 10.7 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 9.7 11.1 19.4 152.3 76.5 71.4 3.0 6.7 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 11.7 13.8 20.0 138.3 72.0 67.4 3.0 6.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 9.2 11.6 19.8 143.6 72.4 69.1 3.5 4.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 8.8 10.4 20.8 153.9 75.0 72.3 2.9 5.1 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 10.6 11.1 21.2 142.9 72.5 69.9 4.1 6.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 19.8 21.9 21.6 156.4 76.2 72.6 9.3 13.1 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 13.8 23.4 29.7 241.4 88.8 86.2 1.0 4.1 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 8.7 9.6 20.8 153.2 75.3 72.0 2.8 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 11.0 14.9 14.9 179.3 81.3 76.4 1.4 5.2 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 12.5 14.5 20.0 136.2 72.5 67.2 5.5 7.4 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 12.0 16.1 17.4 175.0 80.9 75.1 2.6 6.6 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 11.2 12.8 27.6 164.5 78.9 72.9 4.0 8.8 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 10.4 12.6 19.6 161.7 78.8 73.5 3.6 6.6 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 11.3 13.1 16.1 173.1 79.0 74.9 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 11.6 14.9 18.9 176.1 81.7 75.4 3.1 7.5 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 16.2 19.7 19.9 150.6 74.9 70.3 5.8 9.8 17.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 11.3 13.4 21.1 165.1 81.3 74.6 3.4 7.7 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 11.4 13.5 23.6 168.9 80.3 76.2 2.6 4.3 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 11.8 14.7 18.8 167.1 81.5 74.7 2.9 6.1 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 7.8 12.9 24.9 198.5 84.5 80.7 1.5 3.0 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 22.0 24.7 21.9 143.2 74.4 68.8 7.4 14.8 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 12.1 16.8 17.1 175.9 82.3 75.5 1.2 4.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------