***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.6 2.2 3.7 -1.2 28.8 37.8 2.4 5.0 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 1.8 1.2 3.4 -1.8 21.7 32.8 2.6 3.6 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.9 2.7 4.0 -1.4 26.9 36.7 3.5 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -2.3 -2.0 0.6 -1.6 30.1 34.8 -1.7 0.0 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.6 3.3 2.4 -1.2 31.0 38.6 3.3 5.1 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.3 2.3 0.1 50.5 51.6 3.1 4.2 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 1.4 0.7 3.5 -1.6 23.6 34.3 2.1 3.3 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -3.0 -2.7 1.9 -0.9 33.8 40.6 -2.7 -1.6 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.6 3.7 3.2 -1.2 28.2 38.2 3.9 5.2 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.3 3.6 2.4 -1.2 30.0 38.6 3.7 5.0 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.6 3.6 2.7 -0.9 33.7 40.8 3.6 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.6 4.3 2.7 -0.6 38.4 44.3 4.1 4.7 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.8 4.6 2.9 -0.2 46.8 48.4 3.7 5.0 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 3.8 3.6 3.2 -1.7 27.0 34.8 3.8 6.4 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.0 2.8 1.7 -1.6 30.3 34.0 3.1 5.5 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.0 4.4 2.6 -0.5 40.4 44.9 4.1 5.6 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 1.7 1.1 3.2 -1.9 20.6 31.1 2.2 3.6 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 2.5 2.4 2.2 -1.2 29.7 38.0 2.6 4.2 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 2.1 1.8 3.6 -1.8 22.7 33.3 2.8 3.7 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 0.2 1.0 0.9 -0.8 33.8 41.0 1.0 1.7 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.6 3.5 3.8 -1.2 28.7 38.0 3.5 5.2 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 2.1 1.6 3.3 -2.0 20.6 30.2 2.7 4.3 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.3 2.2 3.8 -1.6 25.0 34.7 3.0 4.5 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 3.5 3.8 3.4 -1.4 27.7 36.6 4.1 5.7 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 2.3 2.3 2.3 -1.3 28.9 36.5 2.5 3.6 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.7 2.6 0.2 51.2 52.0 4.0 4.6 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.7 3.1 3.3 -1.1 29.3 38.3 3.1 4.5 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.6 3.3 1.4 -1.4 32.2 36.5 3.5 6.0 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 0.5 0.3 1.8 -1.1 31.4 38.8 0.3 1.8 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 1.7 1.4 3.5 -1.6 23.1 34.6 2.7 3.4 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------