***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.0 2.6 5.2 -0.9 41.8 45.9 2.3 3.3 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.3 2.5 5.1 -1.0 37.5 44.2 2.4 3.5 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.6 3.1 5.6 -0.9 40.5 45.5 2.8 4.0 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.5 -2.2 2.2 -1.4 40.7 42.2 -3.2 -0.8 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.4 3.2 3.6 -1.0 42.8 44.6 2.7 4.0 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.1 3.1 -0.2 48.2 49.7 2.7 5.3 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.8 2.4 5.2 -0.9 38.5 45.4 2.1 2.9 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -4.3 -3.4 3.1 -0.8 42.2 45.5 -4.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.9 4.2 4.5 -0.9 42.0 45.3 2.7 4.3 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.1 3.5 3.6 -1.0 41.9 45.1 3.2 4.9 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.4 4.4 3.8 -0.8 43.6 45.7 3.4 5.0 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.2 4.5 3.8 -0.6 44.5 47.0 2.8 4.8 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.7 5.0 3.4 -0.3 47.7 49.1 3.3 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.0 4.8 -1.1 40.8 44.5 3.3 4.3 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.3 3.3 2.8 -1.4 37.2 41.4 3.1 4.5 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.9 5.1 3.5 -0.7 45.4 47.0 3.5 5.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.6 2.4 5.1 -1.0 36.0 43.6 2.3 3.2 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.0 3.9 3.7 -1.0 40.4 44.6 2.8 4.6 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.3 2.5 5.3 -1.0 38.3 44.1 2.2 3.6 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.8 1.2 1.6 -0.9 38.2 44.9 0.6 1.7 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 5.7 3.1 5.0 -0.9 42.3 45.3 2.6 4.1 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.1 2.8 5.1 -1.2 35.2 42.5 2.6 3.9 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.3 2.7 5.6 -1.0 39.8 44.7 2.4 3.9 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.0 3.7 4.8 -1.0 41.4 45.0 3.1 4.5 8.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.2 2.6 3.4 -1.1 41.9 44.5 2.2 3.8 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.2 3.4 -0.1 49.7 50.5 3.4 6.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.7 3.0 4.6 -0.8 42.0 46.0 2.6 3.9 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.5 3.9 2.6 -1.3 39.5 42.5 3.7 4.3 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -0.5 1.0 2.9 -1.0 39.3 44.4 -0.9 1.8 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.0 2.3 5.1 -1.0 38.2 45.0 2.1 3.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------