***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.0 3.6 4.6 -1.0 37.0 44.2 3.0 7.0 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.7 4.2 4.3 -1.3 34.6 42.2 3.6 5.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.9 4.7 5.0 -1.1 37.4 43.6 4.0 7.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 2.0 0.1 1.7 -1.3 37.6 41.2 -0.3 1.2 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.1 5.2 3.2 -1.0 38.6 44.1 4.7 7.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.0 3.2 0.2 50.1 51.9 4.1 6.0 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.7 4.5 -1.1 36.9 43.6 2.6 5.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -0.7 -2.1 2.9 -0.6 42.1 47.2 -2.5 -1.5 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.1 6.7 4.1 -0.9 40.3 44.7 5.6 8.4 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.8 6.6 3.4 -0.8 40.5 45.7 5.2 8.2 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.0 6.4 3.4 -0.7 40.2 46.2 4.8 8.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.0 6.7 3.6 -0.3 44.5 48.8 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.6 3.4 0.1 48.7 51.7 4.7 7.8 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.7 6.2 4.5 -1.0 39.0 44.4 5.6 8.3 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.4 5.0 2.1 -1.6 35.5 39.2 4.7 7.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.4 7.4 3.3 -0.4 43.0 48.2 4.9 8.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.8 3.8 4.3 -1.3 34.8 41.9 3.6 5.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.4 5.1 3.5 -0.8 40.1 45.8 4.4 6.9 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.2 4.2 4.5 -1.4 34.9 42.0 3.7 6.3 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 4.6 2.8 1.7 -0.5 42.4 47.5 1.8 3.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.3 5.9 4.5 -1.0 38.3 44.0 4.9 7.9 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.3 3.4 4.3 -1.5 32.6 40.5 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.9 4.8 4.9 -1.3 36.9 42.4 4.6 6.8 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.6 5.9 4.4 -1.0 38.8 44.5 5.6 8.6 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.8 4.9 2.9 -1.1 35.9 42.8 4.2 5.9 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.3 3.4 0.4 50.0 53.9 4.6 6.3 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.9 4.2 4.1 -0.9 36.9 44.4 3.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.4 5.8 2.1 -1.3 37.6 41.8 5.0 8.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 4.6 3.0 3.0 -0.7 40.9 46.6 1.9 3.9 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.9 4.0 4.4 -1.2 35.5 42.9 3.5 6.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------