***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 -0.1 1.3 2.7 -1.7 34.5 40.6 1.1 2.2 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 0.7 1.1 2.4 -2.3 28.5 36.9 1.4 2.6 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.0 2.7 3.1 -1.8 34.8 40.3 2.6 4.1 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -3.4 -3.6 -0.5 -2.0 33.1 37.7 -3.6 -0.9 0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.7 2.9 1.6 -1.4 38.5 42.2 2.0 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.6 3.2 1.5 0.0 50.6 52.4 2.2 3.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 0.2 1.1 2.5 -2.1 30.3 38.0 1.1 2.6 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -3.1 -2.7 1.1 -1.1 42.4 44.9 -3.2 -2.0 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.4 2.4 -1.5 37.9 40.9 3.1 4.5 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.5 3.3 1.6 -1.4 40.3 42.8 3.1 3.9 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.7 3.4 2.0 -1.1 41.7 44.6 2.4 4.2 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.7 3.8 1.9 -0.7 44.4 47.4 3.1 4.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.6 3.9 2.3 -0.2 48.3 50.7 2.5 4.2 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.3 3.4 2.6 -1.9 37.2 39.6 3.1 5.2 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 1.9 2.0 0.6 -2.3 28.9 34.8 2.6 4.0 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.8 3.9 1.9 -0.6 45.6 48.1 2.3 4.2 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 1.0 0.8 2.2 -2.4 27.2 35.5 1.2 3.4 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.0 2.9 1.5 -1.3 39.9 43.6 2.5 3.4 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 0.7 1.2 2.5 -2.3 29.3 37.4 1.9 3.1 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -0.3 1.5 0.3 -0.9 42.2 46.5 0.8 1.5 2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.5 2.9 3.0 -1.5 37.9 41.3 2.6 4.1 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 1.5 1.3 2.3 -2.5 28.1 34.9 1.8 4.0 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 1.6 2.0 2.8 -2.1 31.7 38.6 2.1 3.8 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.3 3.4 2.7 -1.6 38.0 41.2 2.9 5.5 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.0 1.8 1.5 -1.7 37.2 40.5 1.7 2.9 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.4 3.8 1.7 0.0 48.1 51.9 2.9 3.9 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 0.4 1.7 2.4 -1.5 36.4 41.7 1.5 2.7 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.8 2.5 0.4 -1.9 33.9 38.5 2.4 4.8 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -0.6 0.7 1.1 -1.2 41.5 44.5 0.2 1.5 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 0.2 0.9 2.5 -2.1 30.5 38.2 1.4 2.5 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------