***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.7 0.9 2.5 -1.4 37.0 37.6 0.4 3.8 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 0.5 -0.2 1.8 -2.4 26.1 29.2 0.2 2.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.2 0.9 2.5 -1.8 33.1 34.7 0.9 4.1 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 0.8 -2.0 -0.9 -1.5 36.2 37.2 -2.9 -0.3 2.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.7 2.8 1.1 -1.2 40.2 39.3 2.2 5.0 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 3.8 3.4 1.5 0.5 48.7 51.3 2.7 3.4 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 0.1 -0.5 1.8 -2.2 27.6 30.5 0.1 2.0 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 0.0 -2.2 0.6 -1.1 38.8 38.7 -2.6 -0.4 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.2 2.5 1.9 -1.5 37.2 37.1 2.2 5.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.5 2.1 0.9 -1.5 36.5 36.6 1.6 4.8 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 6.0 2.2 1.7 -1.1 40.8 40.5 1.8 5.3 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 5.7 3.3 1.4 -0.6 42.5 42.8 1.9 5.0 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 5.1 3.7 2.5 -0.2 44.5 46.3 1.8 4.7 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 1.3 0.2 1.2 -2.7 24.6 28.9 1.1 3.9 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 3.7 2.1 1.2 -1.3 36.9 38.7 1.0 2.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 6.1 4.3 1.7 -0.4 44.5 45.2 2.6 5.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 0.0 0.1 1.2 -2.7 24.1 26.4 0.5 2.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.8 1.2 0.3 -1.9 32.1 33.6 1.3 3.2 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 0.5 -0.3 1.9 -2.4 26.4 30.0 -0.2 2.3 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 3.1 -0.9 -0.1 -0.9 35.8 38.3 -1.1 2.3 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.7 2.2 2.6 -1.5 37.8 37.5 1.7 4.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 0.5 0.0 1.3 -2.8 23.0 25.9 0.8 2.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 0.8 0.1 2.0 -2.2 27.8 31.5 0.6 2.8 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 1.8 1.0 1.6 -2.2 29.7 32.3 1.1 4.2 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.4 2.1 1.5 -1.3 39.1 38.0 1.1 3.8 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 4.7 4.5 2.0 0.5 49.4 50.9 2.4 4.5 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.3 1.9 2.2 -1.3 39.2 38.2 0.9 4.4 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 5.4 2.9 0.4 -1.2 38.8 39.8 2.1 4.8 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.3 -0.4 0.1 -1.6 33.1 35.0 -0.4 2.2 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 0.4 -0.4 2.1 -2.1 29.1 31.9 -0.1 2.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------