***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2019.-17.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 -3.7 -3.0 -2.0 0.2 43.4 51.4 -3.7 -2.6 -0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 -4.5 -4.1 -2.1 -0.1 40.3 49.6 -4.9 -2.9 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 -0.5 -1.6 -2.0 0.1 42.3 50.6 -2.8 -1.5 1.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -5.8 -8.0 -5.0 0.1 41.9 49.7 -9.8 -6.9 -4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 -4.8 -3.3 -4.3 0.3 44.6 51.2 -4.0 -2.7 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -3.1 -3.7 -6.0 0.7 47.9 54.9 -4.8 -3.6 -2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 -4.1 -3.6 -2.1 -0.1 41.9 50.1 -4.2 -2.8 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -8.3 -9.1 -5.6 0.7 49.8 54.5 -11.1 -9.1 -7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 -4.5 -3.0 -3.8 0.3 45.9 51.4 -4.0 -2.9 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 -2.1 -2.9 -5.0 0.5 48.6 53.0 -3.9 -2.8 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 -4.0 -3.0 -4.9 0.5 45.9 52.7 -4.0 -2.3 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 -3.0 -3.7 -5.2 0.7 47.5 53.9 -5.0 -3.6 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 -2.2 -2.6 -5.3 0.8 49.9 54.8 -3.8 -2.6 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 -1.6 -2.6 -3.9 0.2 45.0 51.0 -3.8 -2.3 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 -1.5 -3.3 -3.9 0.1 41.3 49.2 -3.5 -2.0 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 -3.6 -2.2 -5.3 0.5 46.1 53.0 -3.3 -2.0 -0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 -4.5 -3.7 -2.2 -0.3 39.7 48.2 -4.3 -2.6 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -3.8 -4.5 -5.4 0.6 49.2 53.5 -5.6 -4.4 -2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 -4.8 -4.3 -2.2 -0.1 40.9 49.6 -4.4 -3.3 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -9.8 -6.8 -6.1 1.1 55.5 57.7 -8.9 -8.3 -5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 -2.2 -3.5 -2.7 0.2 43.8 51.1 -4.2 -3.1 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -4.7 -4.0 -2.4 -0.4 39.4 47.4 -4.5 -2.9 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 -4.7 -4.2 -2.4 0.0 41.9 50.0 -4.4 -3.2 -1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 -2.2 -3.0 -4.0 0.3 45.4 51.5 -4.7 -2.9 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -3.5 -3.4 0.2 42.5 51.6 -3.6 -3.1 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 -4.4 -3.0 -5.5 0.8 48.0 55.0 -3.7 -3.0 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 -4.5 -3.3 -2.4 0.2 43.0 51.9 -3.8 -3.1 -0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -2.4 -4.2 -4.8 0.1 41.5 49.2 -5.4 -2.9 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -4.9 -5.6 -5.6 0.8 51.5 54.9 -7.9 -5.7 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 -4.3 -3.5 -2.1 0.0 41.3 50.3 -4.4 -2.6 -1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------